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The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma

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  • Cavallino, Paolo
  • Sandri, Damiano

Abstract

Contrary to Mundell's trilemma, we show that free capital mobility may prevent monetary policy from ensuring output stability even if the exchange rate is flexible due to the existence of an Effective Lower Bound. The ELB is an interest rate threshold below which monetary easing becomes contractionary because of adverse effects on credit supply. A tightening in global monetary and financial conditions increases the ELB and may force central banks to hike rates even though domestic economic activity contracts. We also show that the ELB gives rise to a novel inter-temporal trade-off for monetary policy and calls for using a broad range of policy tools to restore monetary transmission.

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  • Cavallino, Paolo & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:140:y:2023:i:c:s0022199622001234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103691
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    Cited by:

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    4. Paolo Cavallino & Boris Hofmann, 2022. "Capital flows and monetary policy trade-offs in emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 1032, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Capital flows; Collateral constraints; Currency mismatches; Carry trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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