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U. S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles

Author

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  • Bräuning, Falk

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

  • Ivashina, Victoria

    () (Harvard Business School)

Abstract

Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated primarily in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle, EME borrowers face a 32-percentage-point greater increase in the volume of loans issued by foreign banks than borrowers from developed markets face, with a similarly large effect upon reversal of the U.S. monetary policy stance. This result is robust across different geographical regions and industries, and holds for non-U.S. lenders, including those with little direct exposure to the U.S. economy. Local EME lenders do not offset the foreign bank capital flows; thus, U.S. monetary policy affects credit conditions for EME firms. We show that the spillover is stronger in higher-yielding and more financially open markets, and for firms with a higher reliance on foreign bank credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bräuning, Falk & Ivashina, Victoria, 2017. "U. S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles," Working Papers 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:17-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global business cycle; monetary policy; emerging markets; reaching for yield;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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