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U. S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles

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  • Falk Bräuning
  • Victoria Ivashina

Abstract

Foreign banks? lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated primarily in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle, EME borrowers face a 32-percentage-point greater increase in the volume of loans issued by foreign banks than borrowers from developed markets face, with a similarly large effect upon reversal of the U.S. monetary policy stance. This result is robust across different geographical regions and industries, and holds for non-U.S. lenders, including those with little direct exposure to the U.S. economy. Local EME lenders do not offset the foreign bank capital flows; thus, U.S. monetary policy affects credit conditions for EME firms. We show that the spillover is stronger in higher-yielding and more financially open markets, and for firms with a higher reliance on foreign bank credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Falk Bräuning & Victoria Ivashina, 2017. "U. S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles," Working Papers 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, revised 29 Aug 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:17-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Georgios Georgiadis & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_009, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Baumann, Ursel & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Seitz, Franz, 2019. "Detecting turning points in global economic activity," Working Paper Series 2310, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; reaching for yield; global business cycle; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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