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Long run and Short run Macroeconomics Determinants of Economic Growth in the USA: Cointegration and VECM Analysis

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  • Bakari, Sayef
  • Tiba, Sofien

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to search determinants of economic growth in the USA in the long run and the short run for the period 1970 – 2016. By using co-integration analysis and Vector Error Correction Model, we make the compensation of a lot of variables that they did not include with each other before. Empirical analysis show that in the long run that Final consumption expenditure, population, domestic investment, foreign direct investment inflow, and export are the source of economic growth in the long run, however foreign direct investment outflow, military expenditure, tax revenue, and imports are not seen as a source of economic growth in the long run. In the short run, all of the variables have not any effect on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakari, Sayef & Tiba, Sofien, 2019. "Long run and Short run Macroeconomics Determinants of Economic Growth in the USA: Cointegration and VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 96618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96618
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96618/1/MPRA_paper_96618.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    7. repec:eee:energy:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:799-811 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro Determinants; Economic Growth; Cointegration Analysis; VECM; USA.;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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