IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Some Finite Sample Results On Testing For Granger Noncausality

We compare testing strategies for Granger noncausality in vector autoregressions (VARs)that may or may not have unit roots and cointegration. Sequential testing methods are examined; these test for cointegration and use either a differenced VAR or a vector error correction model(VECM), in which to undertake the main noncausality test. Basically, these strategies attempt to verify the validity of appropriate standard limit theory. We contrast such methods with an augmented lag approach that ensures the limiting Chi Square null distribution irrespective of the data’s nonstationarity characteristics. Our simulations involve bivariate and trivariate VARs in which we allow for the lag order to be selected by general to specific testing as well as by model selection criteria. We find that the current practice of pretesting for cointegration can result in severe over-rejections of the noncausal null while overfitting results in better control of the Type I error probability with often little loss in power.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/assets/docs/econometrics/ewp0305.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Victoria in its series Econometrics Working Papers with number 0305.

as
in new window

Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 30 May 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0305
Note: ISSN 1485-6441
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 1700, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada, V8W 2Y2
Phone: (250)721-6197
Fax: (250)721-6214
Web page: http://web.uvic.ca/econ

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  2. Boudjellaba, Hafida & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Roy, Roch, 1994. "Simplified conditions for noncausality between vectors in multivariate ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 271-287, July.
  3. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  4. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  5. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  8. Hiro Y. Toda & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1991. "Vector Autoregression and Causality: A Theoretical Overview and Simulation Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1001, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  10. Toda, Hiro Y & Phillips, Peter C B, 1993. "Vector Autoregressions and Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(6), pages 1367-93, November.
  11. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  12. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  13. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  14. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  15. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Juan J. DOLADO & Helmut LÜTKEPOHL, 1994. "Making Wald Tests Work for Cointegrated Var Systems," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1994,44, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  17. Hoffman, Dennis L & Rasche, Robert H, 1996. "Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 495-517, Sept.-Oct.
  18. Yamada, Hiroshi & Toda, Hiro Y., 1998. "Inference in possibly integrated vector autoregressive models: some finite sample evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 55-95, June.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  20. Nishii, R., 1988. "Maximum likelihood principle and model selection when the true model is unspecified," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 392-403, November.
  21. Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 1998. "Specification via model selection in vector error correction models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 321-328, September.
  22. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  24. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, HELMUT, 1996. "Infinite-Order Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 814-844, December.
  25. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Giles)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.