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Causality between Indian Exports, Imports, and Agricultural, Manufacturing GDP

Author

Listed:
  • László Kónya

    (School of Economics, La Trobe University)

  • Jai Pal Singh

    (Department of Business Management CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar, India)

Abstract

Singh and Kónya (2006) studied the relationship between Indian GDP, exports, and imports from 1950/51 to 2003/2004. A logical further step is to investigate the same issue for two major sectors of the Indian economy: agriculture and manufacturing. In both sectors there is evidence of Granger causality between GDP and total exports, imports. In particular, agricultural GDP causes imports, exports cause agricultural GDP, and any two variables jointly cause the third one. There is also some evidence for agricultural GDP causing exports, and imports causing agricultural GDP, though these results are sensitive to model specification. As regards manufacturing, there seems to be two-way causality between manufacturing GDP and exports, imports cause manufacturing GDP, manufacturing GDP and imports jointly cause exports, and exports and imports jointly cause manufacturing GDP, but manufacturing GDP and exports do not seem to cause imports. Finally, there is also some evidence for manufacturing GDP causing imports, but this result is also sensitive to model specification.

Suggested Citation

  • László Kónya & Jai Pal Singh, 2007. "Causality between Indian Exports, Imports, and Agricultural, Manufacturing GDP," Working Papers 2007.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:trb:wpaper:2007.02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    causality; agricultural and manufacturing GDP; export; import; India.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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