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Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters

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Abstract

The extensive body of research that examines for (Granger, 1969) causality from exports to output for developing countries, including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using vector autoregressions and/or vector error correction models, is limited in only examining for one-period ahead or direct causality; the exception is in bivariate systems. This (usually unrecognized) focus on one-period causality in multivariate systems has often led to conclusions that exports do not Granger-cause economic output. We show that moving to Granger-causality at longer horizons, in a commonly used multivariate system, leads to bidirectional causality between exports and output, even when there is not one-period causality; the longer horizon causality arises indirectly through one or more of the auxiliary variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Judith A. Clarke & Mukesh Ralhan, 2005. "Direct and Indirect Causality Between Exports and Economic Output for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka: Horizon Matters," Econometrics Working Papers 0512, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:0512
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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    Cited by:

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    6. Khan, Shibli A. & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Alam, Md. Mahmudul, 2019. "An Empirical Study on Export, Import and Economic Growth in Bhutan," OSF Preprints pax9f, Center for Open Science.
    7. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall, 2019. "The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Stock Market Depth, Trade Openness, And Foreign Direct Investment: The Case Of Asean Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 461-493, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Granger causality; export-led growth; vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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