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Four factors that explain both the rise and fall of US crime, 1970-2003

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  • Gary Shoesmith

Abstract

Previous research has failed to explain the rise and fall of US crime since 1970. This study uses cointegration, error correction and common long-memory components analyses to demonstrate that four basic crime factors explaining both the increases in US violent and property crime between 1970 and 1991 and the dramatic declines in crime after 1991. The four factors include arrest rates, income per capita, the proportion of criminal-justice resources devoted to drug crime and alcohol consumption. Error correction models and common long-memory factors show an especially close link between crime rates and the percentage of prison resources devoted to drug offenders. Similar factors result in cointegrated models for murder, rape, robbery, assault and larceny. Additional modelling shows that effective abortion rates computed along the lines of Donohue and Levitt (2001) do not help in explaining the rise and fall of US crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Shoesmith, 2010. "Four factors that explain both the rise and fall of US crime, 1970-2003," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2957-2973.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:42:y:2010:i:23:p:2957-2973
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840801964765
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher L. Foote & Christopher F. Goetz, 2005. "Testing economic hypotheses with state-level data: a comment on Donohue and Levitt (2001)," Working Papers 05-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1989. "The Full Information Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Inference on Cointegration - with Applications," Discussion Papers 89-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Zimmerman, Paul R. & Benson, Bruce L., 2007. "Alcohol and rape: An "economics-of-crime" perspective," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 442-473, December.
    5. John J. Donohue & Steven D. Levitt, 2006. "Measurement Error, Legalized Abortion, and the Decline in Crime: A Response to Foote and Goetz (2005)," NBER Working Papers 11987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Jemma Cook & Steve Cook, 2011. "Are US Crime Rates Really Unit Root Processes?," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 299-314, September.
    2. Alessandro Moro, 2017. "Distribution dynamics of property crime rates in the United States," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(11), pages 2613-2630, August.
    3. Ferda Halicioglu, 2012. "Temporal causality and the dynamics of crime in Turkey," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(9), pages 704-720, July.
    4. Steve Cook & Tom Winfield, 2013. "Crime across the States: Are US Crime Rates Converging?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(9), pages 1724-1741, July.
    5. Ogundari, Kolawole, 2021. "Crime and economic conditions in the United States Revisited," MPRA Paper 116944, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2022.
    6. Steve Cook & Duncan Watson, 2013. "Breaks and Convergence in U.S. Regional Crime Rates: Analysis of Their Presence and Implications," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-11, August.
    7. Tauã Vital & Daniel Morais De Souza & Jessica Faciroli, 2020. "Unemployment, poverty and police performance: an ARDL analysis of crime in São Paulo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 128-139.
    8. Alexander F. McQuoid & J. Britton Haynes Jr., 2017. "The Thin (Red) Blue Line: Police Militarization and Violent Crime," Departmental Working Papers 56, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    9. Steve Cook & Tom Winfield, 2015. "The urban-rural divide, regional disaggregation and the convergence of crime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(47), pages 5072-5087, October.

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