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Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach

Author

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  • Nadir Öcal

    (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, ocal@metu.edu.tr)

  • Jülide Yildirim

    (Department of Econometrics, Gazi University & Tübitak)

Abstract

The economic growth effects of terrorism have generally been examined in a cross-country framework where socio-economic differences among the countries are ignored. This highly restrictive assumption may result in heterogeneity bias, which could be overcome by resorting to country studies rather than cross-country analysis. Moreover, the relationship between the terrorist incidents and various factors may not be stationary in space. The majority of terrorist incidents in Turkey are concentrated mainly in Eastern, and South Eastern Turkey and big cities. Thus, the geographical dispersion of terrorist incidents in Turkey may result in uneven regional impact, necessitating local parameter estimates. This study analyses the effects of terrorism on economic growth across provinces of Turkey for the time period 1987—2001. Following a traditional global regression analysis, spatial variations in the relationships are examined with geographically weighted regression (GWR) to obtain locally different parameter estimates. A GWR approach allows the modeling of relationships that vary over space by introducing distance-based weights to provide parameter estimates for each variable and each geographical location. Empirical evidence indicates that a GWR model significantly improves the model fitting over the traditional global model. Even though the traditional convergence analysis reveals that terrorism hinders economic growth, GWR results indicate that its provincial effects are more pronounced for the Eastern and South Eastern provinces compared to the Western provinces. Moreover, empirical findings suggest that there is a considerable variation in speeds of convergence of provinces, which cannot be captured by the traditional beta convergence analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadir Öcal & Jülide Yildirim, 2010. "Regional effects of terrorism on economic growth in Turkey: A geographically weighted regression approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 477-489, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:47:y:2010:i:4:p:477-489
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Simplice Asongu & Uchenna R. Efobi & Ibukun Beecroft, 2017. "Aid in Modulating the Impact of Terrorism on FDI: No Positive Thresholds, No Policy," Working Papers 17/061, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Simplice Asongu & Uchenna EFOBI & Ibukun BEECROFT, 2015. "FDI, Aid, Terrorism: Conditional Threshold Evidence from Developing Countries," Working Papers 15/019, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Alam Khan & Mario Estrada & Zarinah Yusof, 2016. "How terrorism affects the economic performance? The case of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 867-883, March.
    4. Simplice Asongu & Oasis Kodila-Tedika, 2017. "Trade, aid and terror," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 2-24, April.
    5. Brodeur, Abel, 2015. "Terrorism and Employment: Evidence from Successful and Failed Terror Attacks," IZA Discussion Papers 9526, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. repec:ere:journl:v:xxxvi:y:2017:i:1:p:25-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Simplice A. Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2016. "Conditional linkages between iron ore exports, foreign aid and terrorism," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 29(2), pages 57-70, December.
    8. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta C. Nwachukwu, 2017. "Fuel Exports, Aid and Terrorism," Working Papers 17/016, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Simplice Asongu & John Ssozi, 2017. "When is Foreign Aid Effective in Fighting Terrorism? Threshold Evidence," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 370-389, July.

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