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Protecting Postville? The impact of deportation and immigration on crime

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua K. Bedi

    (University of Wisconsin - Superior)

  • Shaomeng Jia

    (University of Louisiana Monroe)

  • Claudia Williamson Kramer

    (University of Tennessee at Chattanooga)

Abstract

A common perception is that the deportation of immigrants results in less crime and increased immigration raises crime. Using a 2008 worksite raid in Postville, Iowa and a 2006 worksite raid in Marshalltown, Iowa as natural experiments, we use a synthetic control method to study how deportation impacts local crime. Because the Postville worksite raid was followed by increases in immigrant workers in 2009, we also analyze how increased immigration impacts crime. Our analysis of both deportations suggests the removal of immigrants increased violent crime and decreased property crime, at least in the short term. Estimated effects of the 2009 inflow of immigrants suggest that new arrivals were accompanied by lower crime rates. Sensitivity analysis, however, suggests neither deportation nor increased immigration were the root causes of documented changes in crime. Rather, other latent factors influenced crime rates in Postville, Marshalltown, and other areas, irrespective of immigrant deportation or new immigrants. Our results imply major changes in immigration do not impact crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua K. Bedi & Shaomeng Jia & Claudia Williamson Kramer, 2025. "Protecting Postville? The impact of deportation and immigration on crime," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 203(3), pages 369-396, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:203:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-024-01232-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01232-7
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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