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How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?

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Abstract

We study the welfare cost of inflation in a general equilibrium life cycle model with growth, costly financial intermediation, and taxes on nominal quantities. We find a stationary equilibrium of the model matches a wide variety of facts about the postwar U.S. economy. We then calculate that the inflation policy of the monetary authority has welfare consequences for agents that are an order of magnitude larger than existing estimates in the literature. These effects are large even at very low inflation rates. The bulk of the welfare cost of inflation can be attributed to the fact that inflation increases the effective tax rate on capital income.

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  • James B. Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "How costly is sustained low inflation for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 1997-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1997-012
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.1997.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
    2. Gavin, William T. & Kydland, Finn E. & Pakko, Michael R., 2007. "Monetary policy, taxes, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1587-1611, September.
    3. Robert Grafstein, 2009. "The Puzzle of Weak Pocketbook Voting," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 21(4), pages 451-482, October.
    4. Ciżkowicz, Piotr & Rzońca, Andrzej, 2010. "Inflation and corporate investment in selected OECD countries in the years 1960-2005 – an empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 29846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michael R. Pakko, 1998. "Shoe-leather costs of inflation and policy credibility," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 37-50.
    6. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Haslag, Joseph & Russell, Steven, 2005. "The role of money in two alternative models: When is the Friedman rule optimal, and why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1401-1433, November.
    7. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2021. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Markov Regime Switching Heteroskedasticity: Evidence from European Countries," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(2), pages 181-200.
    8. William Poole, 1999. "Is inflation too low?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Jul), pages 3-10.
    9. Clark A. Burdick, 1997. "A transitional analysis of the welfare cost of inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    10. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    11. Orazio P. Attanasio & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 2002. "The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 317-351, April.
    12. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation," Working Paper Series 278, European Central Bank.
    13. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1997. "History and theory of the NAIRU: a critical review," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 2), pages 4-25.
    14. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "The welfare cost of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian Tipoy & Mulatu Zerihun, 2014. "Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 41-62, February.
    16. Joseph H. Haslag & Eric R. Young, 1998. "Money Creation, Reserve Requirements, and Seigniorage," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(3), pages 677-698, July.
    17. William T. Gavin & Benjamin D. Keen, 2012. "The zero lower bound and the dual mandate," Working Papers 2012-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. McAndrews, James & Roberds, William, 1999. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Check Float," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 353-377, October.
    20. James B. Bullard & Steven Russell, 1998. "Monetary steady states in a low real interest rate economy," Working Papers 1994-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 2001. "Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2001-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    22. Bullard, James & Russell, Steven, 1999. "An empirically plausible model of low real interest rates and unbacked government debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 477-508, December.

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