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Ambiguity, Pessimism, Optimism and Financial Crises in a Simple Global Game Model

  • Daniel Laskar

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))

We use a non-Bayesian approach to uncertainty which allows for both optimism and pessimism in a simple global game, where each signal can exhibit a bias which is ambiguous. We underline a symmetry between two models of financial crises: a liquidity crisis model, and a currency crisis model. We show that one model with pessimism becomes similar to the other model with optimism, and vice versa, which leads ambiguity to have opposite effects in the two models. We can also rationalize non-neutral effects of shifts in "market sentiment" in these models.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number hal-00811923.

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Date of creation: Apr 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:psewpa:hal-00811923
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  1. Chateauneuf, Alain & Eichberger, Jürgen & Grant, Simon, 2003. "Choice under Uncertainty with the Best and Worst in Mind: Neo-additive Capacities," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-10, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  2. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1989. "Maxmin Expected Utility with Non-Unique Prior," Post-Print hal-00753237, HAL.
  3. David Schmeidler, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7662, David K. Levine.
  4. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  5. Carlsson, H. & van Damme, E.E.C., 1990. "Global games and equilibrium selection," Discussion Paper 1990-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, 06.
  7. Jurgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2009. "Optimism and Pessimism in Games," Discussion Papers 0905, Exeter University, Department of Economics.
  8. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  9. Cheli, Bruno & Della Posta, Pompeo, 2007. "Self-fulfilling currency attacks with biased signals," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 381-396.
  10. Jean-Charles Rochet & Xavier Vives, 2002. "Coordination failures and the lender of last resort: was Bagehot right after all?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24928, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  11. Daniel Laskar, 2012. "Ambiguity and Coordination in a Global. Game Model of Financial Crises," PSE Working Papers halshs-00749500, HAL.
  12. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00749500 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
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