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Private and public information in self-fulfilling currency crises

  • Metz, Christina E.

This paper analyzes the implications of currency crises in a model with unique equilibrium. Starting from a typical multiple equilibria model with self-fulfilling expectations we introduce noisy information, following Morris/Shin (1999). Under certain conditions for the noise parameter, all equilibria but one are eliminated so that we are able to derive comparative statics and subsequent policy devices. We can show that if the a priori expected fundamental state of the economy is good, there is an incentive for the government to disseminate very precise information. However, a high precision of public information increases the danger of an attack if ex-ante expected fundamentals are bad. Moreover, we find that the influence of private information's precision is exactly the reverse.

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/40288/1/321978315.pdf
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Paper provided by Deutsche Bank Research in its series Research Notes with number 00-7.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:007
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  1. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December.
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  4. Chui, Michael & Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew G., 2002. "Sovereign liquidity crises: Analytics and implications for public policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 519-546, March.
  5. Carlsson, H. & Van Damme, E., 1990. "Global Games And Equilibrium Selection," Papers 9052, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113, 01.
  7. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-154416 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Shin, Hyun Song & Morris, Stephen, 2000. "Welfare effects of public information," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,07, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Hellwig, Christian, 2002. "Public Information, Private Information, and the Multiplicity of Equilibria in Coordination Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 191-222, December.
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