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Private and public information in self-fulfilling currency crises

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  • Metz, Christina E.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of currency crises in a model with unique equilibrium. Starting from a typical multiple equilibria model with self-fulfilling expectations we introduce noisy information, following Morris/Shin (1999). Under certain conditions for the noise parameter, all equilibria but one are eliminated so that we are able to derive comparative statics and subsequent policy devices. We can show that if the a priori expected fundamental state of the economy is good, there is an incentive for the government to disseminate very precise information. However, a high precision of public information increases the danger of an attack if ex-ante expected fundamentals are bad. Moreover, we find that the influence of private information's precision is exactly the reverse.

Suggested Citation

  • Metz, Christina E., 2000. "Private and public information in self-fulfilling currency crises," Research Notes 00-7, Deutsche Bank Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113.
    3. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September.
    4. Shin, Hyun Song & Morris, Stephen, 2000. "Welfare effects of public information," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    6. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 2001.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    8. Chui, Michael & Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew G., 2002. "Sovereign liquidity crises: Analytics and implications for public policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 519-546, March.
    9. Hellwig, Christian, 2002. "Public Information, Private Information, and the Multiplicity of Equilibria in Coordination Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 191-222, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Camille Cornand, 2006. "Speculative Attacks and Informational Structure: an Experimental Study," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(5), pages 797-817, November.
    2. Christina Bannier, 2003. "The Role of Information Disparity in the 1994/95 Mexican Peso," International Finance 0310001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "The CNBC Effect: Welfare Effects of Public Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1312, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Galina Hale, 2005. "Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Roll–over," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp062, IIIS.
    5. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
    6. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2009. "Speculative Attacks with Multiple Sources of Public Information," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 73-102, March.
    7. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1275, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates (A.E.R., December 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 338, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Lioudmila Savtchenko, 2010. "Foreign devaluation as a coordinating device of heterogeneous investors: A game-theoretic analysis of financial contagion," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(2), pages 195-204.
    10. Szkup, Michal, 2017. "Multiplier effect and comparative statics in global games of regime change," MPRA Paper 82729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Femminis, Gianluca, 2007. "Currency Attacks With Multiple Equilibria And Imperfect Information: The Role Of Wage-Setters," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 79-112, February.
    12. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
    13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Heterogeneity and Uniqueness in Interaction Games," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1402, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Christina E. Bannier, 2003. "Privacy or Publicity - Who Drives the Wheel?," Game Theory and Information 0309006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Louise Allsopp, 2003. "Speculative behaviour, debt default and contagion: A stylised framework of the Latin American Crisis 2001-2002," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    17. Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2006. "Using standstills to manage sovereign debt crises," Working Papers 0636, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Crises; Common Knowledge; Multiple Equilibria;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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