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Some international evidence on the Lucas Supply Function

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  • Fendel, Ralf
  • Rülke, Jan-Christoph

Abstract

We provide empirical evidence on the Lucas Supply Function based on actual inflation surprises for 19 industrial economies. Our results show that the inflation surprise positively correlates with the output gap and that this relationship is negatively related to inflation variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fendel, Ralf & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2012. "Some international evidence on the Lucas Supply Function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 157-160.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:114:y:2012:i:2:p:157-160
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.10.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
    2. Peter J. Montiel & Iqbal Zaidi, 1987. "Cross-Regime Tests of the Lucas Supply Function in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 34(4), pages 760-769, December.
    3. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    4. Gianluigi Giorgioni, 2001. "New evidence on the output-inflation trade-off from developing economies: the case of the CFA Franc zone," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 1077-1082.
    5. Janko Gorter & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan, 2008. "Taylor Rules for the ECB using Expectations Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(3), pages 473-488, September.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    7. Roy Batchelor, 2001. "How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 225-235.
    8. Robin Brooks & Hali Edison & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 511-533.
    9. Abbott, Brant & Martínez, Cristina, 2008. "An updated assessment of the Lucas supply curve and the inflation-output trade-off," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 199-201, December.
    10. Jakob Brochner Madsen, 1997. "Tests of the Lucas supply curve with price expectational data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 195-197.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reid, Monique B. & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Inflation forecasts and forecaster herding: Evidence from South African survey data," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-50.
    2. Bennani, Hamza, 2014. "Does one word fit all? The asymmetric effects of central banks' communication policy," MPRA Paper 57150, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lucas Supply Function; Inflation expectations; Business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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