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Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies

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  • Hermes, Niels
  • Lensink, Robert

Abstract

This paper shows that policy uncertainty, measured by the uncertainty of budget deficits, tax payments, government consumption and the inflation rate, has a statistically significant positive impact on capital flight. This result remains robust after having applied stability tests.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 377-381, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:71:y:2001:i:3:p:377-381
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P. & Marion, Nancy P., 1993. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 207-210.
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    2. Ljungwall, Christer & Wang, Zijian, 2008. "Why is capital flowing out of China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-372, September.
    3. Le, Quan Vu & Zak, Paul J., 2006. "Political risk and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 308-329, March.
    4. Valerie Cerra & Meenakshi Rishi & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions and Debt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1190-1213.
    5. Brian Piper, 2014. "Factor-Specific Productivity," Working Papers 1401, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    6. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    7. Najeb Masoud & Glenn Hardaker, 2012. "The impact of financial development on economic growth: Empirical analysis of emerging market countries," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 148-173, July.
    8. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    9. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    10. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2013. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Dijkstra, Geske & Hermes, Niels, 2001. "The Uncertainty of Debt Service Payments and Economic Growth of HIPCs: Is there a Case for Debt Relief?," WIDER Working Paper Series 122, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert & Murinde, Victor, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series 099, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Muhammad Azam & Muhammad Khan & Nasir Iqbal, 2012. "Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, September.
    14. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    15. Caroline Fohlin, 2016. "When 'No News' is Bad News: Complexity and Uncertainty in the Global Crisis of 1914," Emory Economics 1606, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
    16. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Meenakshi Rishi & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Robbing the Riches; Capital Flight, Institutions, and Instability," IMF Working Papers 05/199, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Perez, M. Fabricio & Brada, Josef C. & Drabek, Zdenek, 2012. "Illicit money flows as motives for FDI," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 108-126.
    18. Beja Jr, Edsel, 2010. "Balance of Payments-consistent unreported flows," MPRA Paper 21699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Policy risks, technological risks and stock returns: New evidence from the US stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 359-365.
    20. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Vukšić, Goran, 2013. "Capital Flight in the Presence of Domestic Borrowing: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 32-46.
    21. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Goran Vukšić, 2011. "The costs of moving money across borders and the volume of capital flight: the case of Russia and other CIS countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 717-744, November.
    22. Usman, Francis Robert & Arene, Chukwuemeka John, 4. "Effects of Capital Flight and Its Macroeconomic Determinants in Agricultural Growth in Nigeria (1970-2013)," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 2(4).

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