IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jda/journl/vol.55year2021issue1pp167-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capital Flight-Growth Nexus In Subsaharan Africa - The Role Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Afees A. Salisu
  • Kazeem O. Isah

    (University of Ibadan, Nigeria)

Abstract

The indispensable role of capital towards achieving sustainable growth and development in any economy is indisputable. However, despite the increasing evidence of capital inflow to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the capacity to retain this capital for long run growth appears weak given the high incidence of capital flight from the region. Research methodology and data: Using the updated estimates of capital flight for SSA by Boyce and Ndikumana [BN] (2012), we investigate capital flight-growth nexus and the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in SSA. The data utilized cover 28 members of SSA covering the relevant sub-regions for the period 1986 to 2010 for which adequate data are available. We formulate a dynamic panel data model that accounts for both non-stationarity and heterogeneity effects in the data and consequently, we employ the Mean Group (MG) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators to analyze the model. Research findings: On average, we find that the adverse effect of capital flight on growth of SSA is incontrovertible and has the tendency of being escalated by macroeconomic uncertainty. In addition, the results suggest that capital flight has more devastating effects on long run growth of the oil-exporting region than their non-oil counterpart when confronted with macroeconomic uncertainty. We also establish that the inflow of foreign direct investment and foreign aid are not adequate to compensate for capital flight from SSA, while domestic investment and human capital, on the other hand, are drivers of growth in SSA. Policy implications. On the basis of our findings, we advise fiscal and monetary authorities to show serious commitments towards addressing the prevalent macroeconomic uncertainty in SSA in order to mitigate its influence on capital flight and growth in the region. Also, policies that promote human capital development and domestic investments in SSA should be pursued.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem O. Isah, 2021. "Capital Flight-Growth Nexus In Subsaharan Africa - The Role Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 55(1), pages 167-184, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.55:year:2021:issue1:pp:167-184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/51/article/766445
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael P. Dooley & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1994. "Capital flight, external debt, and domestic policies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-37.
    2. World Bank, 1985. "World Development Report 1985," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 5968.
    3. Claessens, Stijn, 1993. "Equity portfolio investment in developing countries : a literature survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1089, The World Bank.
    4. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    5. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    6. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2012. "Pooled Mean Group estimation on international capital mobility in African countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 7-17.
    7. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
    8. Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa & Basiru Fatai, 2013. "Modelling the Demand for Money in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 635-647.
    9. Mark W. Frank, 2005. "Income Inequality and Economic Growth in the U.S. :A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Papers 0503, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    10. Imam Alam & Rahim Quazi, 2003. "Determinants of Capital Flight: An econometric case study of Bangladesh," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 85-103.
    11. Claessens, S. & Gooptu, S., 1993. "Portfolio Investment in Developing Countries," World Bank - Discussion Papers 228, World Bank.
    12. David B. Gordon & Ross Levine, 1989. "The ‘Problem’ of Capital Flight—a Cautionary Note," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 237-252, June.
    13. Léonce Ndikumana & James Boyce, 2010. "Measurement of Capital Flight: Methodology and Results for Sub-Saharan African Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 22(4), pages 471-481.
    14. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Causality between external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5042, The World Bank.
    15. Leonce Ndikumana & James Boyce, 2011. "Capital flight from sub-Saharan Africa: linkages with external borrowing and policy options," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 149-170.
    16. Le, Quan Vu & Zak, Paul J., 2006. "Political risk and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 308-329, March.
    17. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
    18. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-189, April-Jun.
    19. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November.
    20. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    21. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
    22. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
    23. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    24. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Bengochea-Morancho, Aurelia, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve for CO2," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 121-126, January.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    26. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    27. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P. & Marion, Nancy P., 1993. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 207-210.
    28. Erbe, Susanne, 1985. "The flight of capital from developing countries," Intereconomics – Review of European Economic Policy (1966 - 1988), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(6), pages 268-275.
    29. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. P., 1997. "Pooled Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9721, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    30. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    31. repec:dgr:rugsom:98c34 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    33. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, June.
    34. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    35. Marcella Mulino, 2002. "On the determinants of capital flight from Russia," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 148-169, June.
    36. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    37. Alguacil, M. & Cuadros, A. & Orts, V., 2011. "Inward FDI and growth: The role of macroeconomic and institutional environment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 481-496, May.
    38. Nathan Sheets, 1995. "Capital flight from the countries in transition: some theory and empirical evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 514, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Azeez, Rasheed Oluwaseyi, 2019. "Is Tourism a Sustainable Haven for Economic Growth in North African Countries? An Evidence From Panel Analysis," MPRA Paper 93449, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M. & Vukšić, Goran, 2013. "Capital Flight in the Presence of Domestic Borrowing: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 32-46.
    2. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    3. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink & Victor Murinde, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-99, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    5. Halkos, George, 2012. "The impact of government expenditure on the environment: An empirical investigation," MPRA Paper 39957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hajer Dachraoui & Maamar Sebri & Mahmoud M. A. Dwedar, 2021. "Natural Resources and Illicit Financial Flows from BRICS Countries," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, March.
    7. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    8. Sebri, Maamar & Dachraoui, Hajer, 2020. "Resources bless BRICS," MPRA Paper 100423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    10. Ravetti, Chiara & Cambini, Carlo, 2021. "Energy Use Beyond GDP: A Dynamic Panel Analysis with Different Development Indicators," Working Papers 10-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    11. Zeira, Joseph & di Vaio, Gianfranco & Battisti, Michele, 2013. "Global Divergence in Growth Regressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 9687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Andrew Powell & Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra, 2002. "Capital Inflows and Capital Outflows: Measurement, Determinants, Consequences," Business School Working Papers veinticinco, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    13. Josef Brada & Ali Kutan & Goran Vukšić, 2011. "The costs of moving money across borders and the volume of capital flight: the case of Russia and other CIS countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 717-744, November.
    14. Heydari, Hassan & Jariani, Farzaneh, 2020. "Analyzing Effective Factors of Capital Outflow from the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)," MPRA Paper 104547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E., 2017. "Focusing on the right targets: Economic factors driving non-hydro renewable energy transition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 52-63.
    16. Jalil, Abdul, 2014. "Energy–growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross-sectional dependence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 314-324.
    17. Ho, Sy Hoa, 2016. "Long and short-runs determinants of the sovereign CDS spread in emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 579-590.
    18. Lachaud, Michee Arnold & Bravo-Ureta, Boris E. & Ludena, Carlos E., 2015. "Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean and other world regions: An analysis of climatic effects, convergence and catch-up," Working Papers 40, University of Connecticut, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
    19. Maza, Adolfo & Hierro, Maria, 2025. "Delving into the FDI-economic growth relationship at the regional level: Headquarters effect in FDI data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    20. M. O. Adenomon & Hamman Ibrahim, 2025. "Modelling other depository corporations’ sectoral credit and economic growth nexus in Nigeria: a panel ARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 1-30, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.55:year:2021:issue1:pp:167-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Abu N.M. Wahid (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbtnsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.