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Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty : A US and Euro Area Comparison

Author

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  • Olesya V. Grishchenko
  • Sarah Mouabbi
  • Jean-Paul Renne

Abstract

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the US, while mild de-anchoring occurred in the euro-area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be equally anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Olesya V. Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2017. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty : A US and Euro Area Comparison," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-102
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2017.102
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2018. "Decaying Expectations: What Inflation Forecasts Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 55-101, December.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    3. Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2017. "Staying at zero with affine processes: An application to term structure modelling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 348-366.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Matsuoka,Hideaki & Panizza,Ugo G. & Vorisek,Dana Lauren, 2019. "Inflation Expectations : Review and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8785, The World Bank.
    2. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    3. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchoring of inflation expectations ; Dynamic factor model ; Inflation ; Stochastic volatility ; Surveys of professional forecasters ; Term structure of inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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