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Understanding Uncertainty Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Veldkamp

    (NYU Stern)

  • Anna Orlik

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Abstract

For decades, macroeconomists have searched for shocks that are plausible drivers of business cycles. A recent advance in this quest has been to explore uncertainty shocks. Researchers use a variety of forecast and volatility data to justify heteroskedastic shocks in a model, which can then generate realistic cyclical uctuations. But the relevant measure of uncertainty in most models is the conditional variance of a forecast. When agents form such forecasts with state, parameter and model uncertainty, neither forecast dispersion nor innovation volatilities are good proxies for conditional forecast variance. We use observable data to select and estimate a forecasting model and then ask the model to inform us about what uncertainty shocks look like and why they arise.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Veldkamp & Anna Orlik, 2013. "Understanding Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 391, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:391
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    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2013/paper_391.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramón Adalid & Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Stefano Siviero, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    2. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    3. Born, Benjamin & Peter, Alexandra & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2013. "Fiscal news and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2582-2601.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 1-39.
    5. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Dmitriy Sergeyev & Jón Steinsson, 2017. "Growth-Rate and Uncertainty Shocks in Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, pages 1-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Understanding Uncertainty Shocks
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2013-11-04 11:53:18

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
    2. N. Bloom., 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    3. Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, "undated". "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers e71, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    4. M. Joëts & V. Mignon & T. Razafindrabe, 2016. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty ?," Working papers 607, Banque de France.
    5. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-7, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    6. Hikaru Saijo, "undated". "The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles," Working Papers e67, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    7. Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 017, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, "undated". "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers e71, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

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