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Market Uncertainty and Sentiment, and the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift

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Abstract

The post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) was first identified over 40 years ago and seems to be as much alive today as it ever was. There have been numerous attempts to explain its continued existence. In this paper we provide evidence to support a new explanation: the PEAD is very much a reflection of the level of market uncertainty and sentiment that prevails during the post-announcement period. The finding that uncertainty plays a role in explaining how investors respond to information suggests that it should be included as a factor in our pricing models while the fact that market sentiment also has a role is another instance of the importance of human behaviour in establishing prices.

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  • Ron Bird & Daniel Choi & Danny Yeung, 2011. "Market Uncertainty and Sentiment, and the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series 15, The Paul Woolley Centre for Capital Market Dysfunctionality, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:pwcwps:15
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    Cited by:

    1. Bin Wang & Wonseok Choi & Ibrahim Siraj, 2018. "Local investor attention and post-earnings announcement drift," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 219-252, July.
    2. Sharad Asthana & Rachana Kalelkar, 0. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on disclosure and pricing of earnings news," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-32.
    3. Ron Bird & Krishna Reddy & Danny Yeung, 2014. "The relationship between uncertainty and the market reaction to information: Is it influenced by stock-specific characteristics?," International Journal of Behavioural Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 113-132.
    4. Nicole Thorne Jenkins & Michael D. Kimbrough & Juan Wang, 2016. "The extent of informational efficiency in the credit default swap market: evidence from post-earnings announcement returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 725-761, May.
    5. William Forbes & George Giannopoulos, 2015. "Post-Earnings Announcement Drift in Greece," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-20.
    6. Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    7. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Economic news and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    8. Sharad Asthana & Rachana Kalelkar, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on disclosure and pricing of earnings news," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1481-1512, November.
    9. Alex YiHou Huang & Ming-Che Hu & Quang Thai Truong, 2021. "Asymmetrical impacts from overnight returns on stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 849-889, April.
    10. Nawaf Almaskati & Ron Bird & Yue Lu & Danny Leung, 2019. "Corporate Governance, Information Uncertainty and Market Reaction to Information Signals," Working Papers in Economics 19/15, University of Waikato.
    11. Junmao Chiu & Huimin Chung & Keng-Yu Ho, 2014. "Fear Sentiment, Liquidity, and Trading Behavior: Evidence from the Index ETF Market," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-25.
    12. Chih-Hsiang Chang & Wen-Shan Chiang, 2014. "Conditioned Responses towards Measures Relating to the Capital Cost of Short Sellers: Evidence from Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(03), pages 1-27.
    13. Baochen Yang & Yifang Liu & Yunpeng Su, 2023. "Earnings communication conferences and post‐earnings‐announcement drift: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 2145-2185, June.
    14. Josef Fink, 2020. "A Review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2020-04, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    15. Qi Zhang & Charlie Cai & Kevin Keasey, 2014. "The profitability, costs and systematic risk of the post-earnings-announcement-drift trading strategy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 605-625, October.
    16. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    17. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    18. Ding Du & Ou Hu, 2018. "The sentiment premium and macroeconomic announcements," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 207-237, January.
    19. Ray R. Sturm, 2016. "Is There a Presidential Election Cycle in Firm Financials?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-18, June.
    20. William Forbes & George Giannopoulos & Len Skerratt, 2021. "Is overreaction/underreaction chosen by managers? Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 116-147.
    21. Sharad Asthana & Rachana Kalelkar, 2023. "Effect of geomagnetic activity on investors and managers: evidence from the pricing and timing of disclosure of earnings news," Asian Review of Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(3), pages 387-413, February.
    22. Corbet, Shaen & Dowling, Michael & Cummins, Mark, 2015. "Analyst recommendations and volatility in a rising, falling, and crisis equity market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 187-194.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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