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Nominal Uncertainty and Inflation: The Role of European Union Membership

  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Christos S. Savva

Using a GARCH model we provide evidence that higher inflation uncertainty leads to higher inflation in the new European Union (EU) member states and candidate countries only prior to EU accession. During EU accession and entry inflation uncertainty has no effect on mean inflation. This result supports the consideration of policy regime shifts in assessing the nominal uncertainty-average inflation relationship.

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File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr146.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 146.

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Length: 9 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:146
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/

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  1. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November.
  2. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1842, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
  5. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 972-986, October.
  6. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua & Xie, Zixiong, 2008. "Evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of the four little dragons," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 363-376.
  8. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  9. Jiranyakul, Komain & Opiela, Timothy P., 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 105-112, April.
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