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Nominal Uncertainty and Inflation: The Role of European Union Membership

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  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis
  • Christos S. Savva

Abstract

Using a GARCH model we provide evidence that higher inflation uncertainty leads to higher inflation in the new European Union (EU) member states and candidate countries only prior to EU accession. During EU accession and entry inflation uncertainty has no effect on mean inflation. This result supports the consideration of policy regime shifts in assessing the nominal uncertainty-average inflation relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2010. "Nominal Uncertainty and Inflation: The Role of European Union Membership," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 146, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:146
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    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    2. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 972-986, October.
    3. Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-837, August.
    4. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
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    6. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Sanchez, Benito, 2005. "Re-examining inflation and inflation uncertainty in developed and emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 180-186, November.
    7. Thornton, John, 2008. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in Argentina, 1810-2005," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 247-252, March.
    8. Fountas, Stilianos, 2001. "The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 77-83, December.
    9. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua & Xie, Zixiong, 2008. "Evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: The case of the four little dragons," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 363-376.
    10. Jiranyakul, Komain & Opiela, Timothy P., 2010. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the ASEAN-5 economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 105-112, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. William Barnett & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi, 2018. "The Causal Relationships between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201803, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    2. William Barnett & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi, 2018. "The Causal Relationships between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201803, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    3. Kishor, Narayan K. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "What Is Driving Financial Dollarization In Transition Economies? A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 816-835, June.
    4. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    5. Nora Abu Asab & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Alberto Montagnoli, 2015. "Inflation targeting or Exchange Rate Targeting: Which Framework Supports The Goal of Price Stability in Emerging Market Economics?," Working Papers 2015025, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    6. Lee, Seohyun, 2017. "Three essays on uncertainty: real and financial effects of uncertainty shocks," MPRA Paper 83617, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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