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Testing for rate dependence and asymmetry in inflation uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 economies

  • Henry, Olan T.
  • Olekalns, Nilss
  • Suardi, Sandy

The Friedman-Ball hypothesis implies a link between the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty. In this paper we employ a new test for the joint null hypothesis of no dependence effects and no asymmetry in the G7 inflation volatility. The results show that higher inflationrates operate additively via the conditional variance of inflation to induce greater inflation uncertainty in the U.S., U.K. and Canada. In addition, positive inflationary shocks are found to generate greater inflation uncertainty than negative shocks of a similar magnitude in the U.K. and Canada.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 94 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 383-388

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:94:y:2007:i:3:p:383-388
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Hwang, Y., 2001. "Relationship between inflation rate and inflation uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 179-186, November.
  3. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Sandy Suardi, 2005. "Equity Return and Short-Term Interest Rate Volatility : Level Effects and Asymmetric Dynamics," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 941, The University of Melbourne.
  4. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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  7. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  8. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  9. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
  10. Olan T. Henry & Sandy Suardi, 2004. "Testing for a Level Effect in Short-Term Interest Rates," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 924, The University of Melbourne.
  11. Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
  12. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
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