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Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and monetary policy in Turkey: 1960-1998

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  • TF. Nas
  • MJ. Perry

Abstract

The authors constructed a time series of monthly inflation uncertainty in Turkey from 1960 to 1998 using GARCH models and investigated the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty using Granger tests. The authors found strong statistical support that inflation significantly raised inflation uncertainty in Turkey over the full sample period and three subsamples. The evidence on the effect of inflation uncertainty on average inflation is mixed and depends on the time period examined. An analysis of the political conditions and the record of macroeconomic policy making in Turkey between 1960 and 1998 reveal institutional and political factors that can help explain the empirical results. Copyright 2000 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • TF. Nas & MJ. Perry, 2000. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and monetary policy in Turkey: 1960-1998," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 170-180, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:18:y:2000:i:2:p:170-180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald J. Balvers & Thomas F. Cosimano, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 721-738.
    2. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
    3. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
    4. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-184, May.
    5. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    6. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:2:y:1971:i:1971-2:p:485-498 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & Chandana Chakraborty & Serapio Byekwaso, 2012. "Uncertainty of inflation and inflation rate: Does credibility of inflation policy matter?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 95-110, September.
    3. dogru, bulent, 2013. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from Turkey, 1923–2012," MPRA Paper 51232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bhar, Ramprasad & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2010. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5503-5510.
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
    6. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. M. Berument & Yeliz Yalcin & Julide Yildirim, 2011. "The inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship for Turkey: a dynamic framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 293-309, October.

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