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$1.25 Trillion is still real money : some facts about the effects of the Federal Reserve’s mortgage market investments

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  • Andreas Fuster
  • Paul S. Willen

Abstract

This paper measures the effects on the primary U.S. mortgage market of the large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) program in which the Federal Reserve bought $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities in 2009 and 2010. We use an event-study approach and measure the movements in both prices and quantities around the initial announcement of the LSAP and subsequent changes to the program. We use a new dataset to document the changes in the menu of rates and points offered to borrowers and show that there was wide dispersion in the rate changes generated by the announcement of the LSAP program, with some borrowers seeing immediate rate reductions of up to 40 basis points and other borrowers confronting rate increases. We show that the LSAP program led to a substantial boost in market activity, with discontinuous increases in searches, applications and originations for refinance mortgages, but not purchase mortgages. Finally, we show that more creditworthy borrowers were significantly more likely to benefit from the improved credit availability.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its series Public Policy Discussion Paper with number 10-4.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbpp:10-4
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Keywords: Mortgage-backed securities;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Caplin, Andrew & Freeman, Charles & Tracy, Joseph, 1997. "Collateral Damage: Refinancing Constraints and Regional Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 496-516, November.
  2. John B. Taylor & John C. Williams, 2008. "A black swan in the money market," Working Paper Series 2008-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Johannes C. Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2009. "Estimated Impact of the Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," NBER Working Papers 15626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2008. "Housing busts and household mobility," Staff Reports 350, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 41-59.
  6. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley, 2003. "Woodhead Behavior and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages," Working Paper 8616, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
  7. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
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Cited by:

  1. Gilchrist, Simon & López-Salido, J David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," CEPR Discussion Papers 9971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Walentin, Karl, 2013. "Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads," Working Paper Series 275, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
  3. Jeffrey A. Miron & Natalia Rigol, 2013. "Bank Failures and Output During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 19418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Charles Rahal,, 2016. "Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-80.
  5. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
  6. Ben S. Bernanke, 2012. "Opening remarks: monetary policy since the onset of the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-22.
  7. Christina D. Romer, 2013. "It Takes a Regime Shift: Recent Developments in Japanese Monetary Policy through the Lens of the Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2013, Volume 28, pages 383-400 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S., 2012. "Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis : a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 31, 2012," Speech 645, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2012. "The Federal Reserve's portfolio and its effects on mortgage markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Chabot, Benjamin & Herman, Gabe, 2013. "A History of Large-Scale Asset Purchases before the Federal Reserve," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 140-152.
  11. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," NBER Working Papers 17555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
  14. Johannes Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2012. "Estimated Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 1-42, June.
  15. Yu, Edison, 2016. "Did quantitative easing work?," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 1(1), pages 5-13, Q1.
  16. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2013. "The ins and outs of LSAPs," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  17. Robert Jarrow & Hao Li, 2014. "The impact of quantitative easing on the US term structure of interest rates," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 287-321, October.

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