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The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Allen
  • Timothy Grieder
  • Tom Roberts
  • Brian Peterson

Abstract

This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers. Policies targeting the loan-to-value ratio are found to have a larger impact on demand than policies targeting the debt-service ratio, such as amortization. In addition, we show that loan-to-value policies have a larger role to play in reducing default than income-based policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Allen & Timothy Grieder & Tom Roberts & Brian Peterson, 2017. "The impact of macroprudential housing finance tools in Canada," BIS Working Papers 632, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:632
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    2. Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Hasan, Iftekhar & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2020. "National culture and housing credit," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 19-41.
    3. Stefanie Behncke, 2020. "Effects of macroprudential policies on bank lending and credit risks," Working Papers 2020-06, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Ho, Anson T.Y. & Morin, Lealand & Paarsch, Harry J. & Huynh, Kim P., 2022. "A flexible framework for intervention analysis applied to credit-card usage during the coronavirus pandemic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1129-1157.
    5. Robert McKeown, 2017. "How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Banking System To Fire-sales?," Working Paper 1381, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    6. Leonardo Gambacorta & Andrés Murcia, 2019. "The impact of macroprudential policies and their interaction with monetary policy: an empirical analysis using credit registry data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Robert Clark & Shaoteng Li, 2022. "The Strategic Response of Banks to Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Mortgage Stress Tests in Canada [LIBOR manipulation?]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 187-216.
    8. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Murcia, Andrés, 2020. "The impact of macroprudential policies in Latin America: An empirical analysis using credit registry data," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2018. "Monetary policy and macroprudential policy: Different and separate?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 802-827, August.
    10. Ugochi Emenogu & Brian Peterson, 2022. "Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 22-28, Bank of Canada.
    11. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    12. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. McQuinn, Kieran & O’Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2021. "Credit access, macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 944-963.
    14. Mr. Adrian Alter & Elizabeth M. Mahoney, 2020. "Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/042, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Jason Allen & Shaoteng Li, 2020. "Dynamic Competition in Negotiated Price Markets," Staff Working Papers 20-22, Bank of Canada.
    16. González, Francisco, 2022. "Macroprudential policies and bank competition: International bank-level evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    17. Stanga, Irina & Vlahu, Razvan & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "Mortgage arrears, regulation and institutions: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    18. Basto, R. & Gomes, S. & Lima, D., 2019. "Exploring the implications of different loan-to-value macroprudential policy designs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 66-83.
    19. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Thibaut Duprey & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2018. "How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-11, Bank of Canada.
    21. Alter, Adrian & Mahoney, Elizabeth M., 2021. "Local house-price vulnerability: Evidence from the U.S. and Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    22. Gerth, Florian & Temnov, Grigory, 2021. "New Ways of Modeling Loan-to-Income Distributions and their Evolution in Time - A Probability Copula Approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 217-236.
    23. Chen, Yunping & Chen, Huanhuan & Li, Guorong & Jiao, Dongdan & Xu, Xiangyun, 2021. "Time-varying effect of macro-prudential policies on household credit growth: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 241-254.
    24. Scalco, Paulo R. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Teixeira, Anderson M., 2021. "Prudential measures and their adverse effects on bank competition: The case of Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroprudential policy; household finnance; microsimulation models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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