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Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Greenwald

    (MIT)

  • Adam Guren

    (Boston University)

Abstract

o what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the housing boom and bust? The existing literature lacks consensus, with findings ranging from credit having no effect to credit driving the entire house price cycle. We show that the key difference behind these disparate results is how rental markets are modeled: assuming perfect segmentation between rental and owner-occupied housing leads to large effects of credit on house prices, while assuming frictionless rental markets makes credit irrelevant for house prices. We develop a model with frictional rental markets that nests both extremes and allows us to consider intermediate cases. We argue that the relative elasticity of the price-to-rent ratio and homeownership with respect to an identified credit shock is a sufficient statistic to measure these frictions, estimate this moment, and use it to calibrate our model. Our result imply that rental markets are highly frictional and close to segmented, consistent with large effects of credit on house prices. Experiments using the structural model imply that credit conditions explain 47% - 57% of the rise in price-rent ratios over the boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Greenwald & Adam Guren, 2019. "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?," 2019 Meeting Papers 1334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:1334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
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    3. Giovanni Favara & Jean Imbs, 2015. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 958-992, March.
    4. Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin & Tuzel, Selale, 2007. "Housing, consumption and asset pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 531-569, March.
    5. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    6. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    7. Adam M. Guren, 2018. "House Price Momentum and Strategic Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1172-1218.
    8. Pedro Gete & Michael Reher, 2018. "Mortgage Supply and Housing Rents," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4884-4911.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
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    11. Carlos Garriga & Aaron Hedlund, 2020. "Mortgage Debt, Consumption, and Illiquid Housing Markets in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1603-1634, June.
    12. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Model of Price Swings in the Housing Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2036-2072, June.
    13. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung Sakong, 2021. "Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in US Housing Markets," Working Paper Series WP-2021-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Koeniger, Winfried & Lennartz, Benedikt & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2022. "On the transmission of monetary policy to the housing market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Daniel I. García, 2022. "Second‐home buying and the housing boom and bust," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 33-58, March.
    4. Muñoz, Manuel A., 2020. "Macroprudential policy and the role of institutional investors in housing markets," Working Paper Series 2454, European Central Bank.
    5. Tracey, Belinda & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2021. "The consumption response to borrowing constraints in the mortgage market," Bank of England working papers 919, Bank of England.
    6. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Mortgage borrowing and the boom-bust cycle in consumption and residential investment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 244-268, April.
    7. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
    8. Dias, Daniel A. & Duarte, João B., 2015. "Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 112252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    9. Josue Cox & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2021. "Drivers of the great housing boom‐bust: Credit conditions, beliefs, or both?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 843-875, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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