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Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions

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  • ALESSANDRO NOTARPIETRO
  • STEFANO SIVIERO

Abstract

We probe the scope for reacting to house prices in simple and implementable monetary policy rules, using a New Keynesian model with a housing sector and financial frictions on the household side. We show that the social‐welfare‐maximizing monetary policy rule features a reaction to house price variations, when the latter are generated by housing demand or financial shocks. The sign and size of the reaction crucially depend on the degree of financial frictions in the economy. When the share of constrained agents is relatively small, the optimal reaction is negative, implying that the central bank must move the policy rate in the opposite direction with respect to house prices. However, when the economy is characterized by a sufficiently high average loan‐to‐value ratio, then it becomes optimal to counter house price increases by raising the policy rate.

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  • Alessandro Notarpietro & Stefano Siviero, 2015. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 383-410, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:s1:p:383-410
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12208
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    Cited by:

    1. Guay Lim & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2016. "Non-Linearities in the Relationship between House Prices and Interest Rates: Implications for Monetary Policy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2016n02, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. repec:iae:iaewps:wp2016n2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chiara Punzo & Lorenza Rossi, 2019. "The Redistributive Effects of a Money-Financed Fiscal Stimulus," DEM Working Papers Series 168, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Haykaz Igityan & Hasmik Kartashyan, 2021. "Housing Market Drivers and Dynamics in Armenia," Working Papers 16, Central Bank of the Republic of Armenia.
    5. Imran H. Shah & Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero, 2021. "Incorporating asset price stability in the European Central Bank's inflation targeting framework," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2022-2043, April.
    6. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Wei, Xiaoyun & Han, Liyan, 2020. "Targeted reduction in reserve requirement ratio and optimal monetary policy in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 209-230.
    8. Fan, Ying, 2022. "Demand shocks and price stickiness in housing market dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    9. Kolasa Marcin, 2021. "On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 281-307, January.
    10. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2023. "Global banking, financial spillovers and macroprudential policy coordination," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 1003-1040, July.
    11. Anthony M. Diercks, 2015. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, & Optimal Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-87, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Leo Michelis & Ugochi T. Emenogu, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 075, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    13. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2020. "Cross-Border Regulatory Spillovers and Macroprudential Policy Coordination," Working Papers 202028, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    14. Anthony Diercks, 2016. "The Equity Premium, Long-Run Risk, and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2016 Meeting Papers 207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2018. "Monetary policy rules and the equity risk premium: Evidence from the US experience," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 287-299, October.
    16. Mustafa Ozan Yıldırım & Mehmet İvrendi, 2021. "Turkish Housing Market Dynamics: An Estimated DSGE Model," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 238-267, May.
    17. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.
    18. Ugochi Emenogu & Leo Michelis, 2019. "Financial Frictions, Durable Goods and Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 19-31, Bank of Canada.
    19. Javier Ferri & Francisca Herranz-Baez, 2023. "Building on fiscal policy: government consumption and the residential sector. When helping hurts," Working Papers 2023-01, FEDEA.
    20. Rabah Arezki & Thorsten Beck & Robert Deyoung & John V. Duca & Prakash Loungani & Anthony Murphy, 2015. "Conference on Housing, Stability, and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 1-11, March.
    21. Yasin Mimir & Enes Sunel, 2015. "External shocks, banks and optimal monetary policy in an open economy," BIS Working Papers 528, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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