Shakeouts And Market Crashes
This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock-price run-ups and crashes. We use a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips demand. As an illustration, for the period 1971-2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector. Copyright 2007 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 48 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297|
Phone: (215) 898-8487
Fax: (215) 573-2057
Web page: http://www.econ.upenn.edu/ier
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0020-6598 Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine, 2000.
"Growth cycles and market crashes,"
279, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1999.
"Informational overshooting, booms, and crashes,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 237-257, February.
- Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-210, February.
- Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994.
"Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-565, June.
- Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1594, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002.
"Bubbles and Crashes,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp401, Financial Markets Group.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & MacDonald, Glenn M, 1994.
"The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 322-347, April.
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G.M., 1992. "The Life-Cycle of Competitive Industry," Papers 92-09, Rochester, Business - Financial Research and Policy Studies.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Glenn MacDonald, 1993. "The Life-Cycle of a Competitive Industry," NBER Working Papers 4441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jovanovic, B. & MacDonald, G., 1993. "The Life Cycle of a Competitive Industry," Working Papers 93-34, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Rafael Rob, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 655-675.
- Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:48:y:2007:i:2:p:385-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.