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The dynamics of innovation and risk

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  • Biais, Bruno
  • Rochet, Jean-Charles
  • Woolley, Paul

Abstract

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry when agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk-prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when condence becomes high, inefficient managers exerting low risk-prevention effort also enter. This stimulates growth, while reducing risk-prevention. The longer the boom, the larger the losses if a shock occurs. While these dynamics arise in the first-best, asymmetric information generates excessive entry of inefficient managers, earning informational rents, inflating the innovative sector and increasing its vulnerability.

Suggested Citation

  • Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2013. "The dynamics of innovation and risk," TSE Working Papers 13-448, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:27746
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    Cited by:

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    2. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ulf Axelson & Philip Bond, 2015. "Wall Street Occupations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1949-1996, October.
    4. Mr. Yunhui Zhao & Deepal Basak, 2018. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?," IMF Working Papers 2018/123, International Monetary Fund.

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