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Shakeouts and Market Crashes

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  • Alessandro Barbarino
  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

Stock-market crashes tend to follow run-ups in prices. These episodes look like bubbles that gradually inflate and then suddenly burst. We show that such bubbles can form in a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Two conditions are sufficient for this to happen: A declining hazard rate in the prior distribution over market size and a positively sloped supply of capital to the industry. For the period 1971-2001 we fit the model to the Telecom sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Shakeouts and Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 10556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10556
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
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    10. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz-Aliseda, 2011. "Real options with unknown-date events," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 171-198, May.
    2. Bruno Biais & Jean-Charles Rochet & Paul Woolley, 2015. "Dynamics of Innovation and Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1353-1380.
    3. André van Stel & Andrew Burke, 2008. "The Entrepreneurial Adjustment Process in Disequilibrium," Scales Research Reports H200809, EIM Business and Policy Research.
    4. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2010. "Innovations, Rents and Risk," TSE Working Papers 10-200, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Plehn-Dujowich, Jose M., 2009. "Entry and exit by new versus existing firms," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 214-222, March.
    6. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2005. "The diffusion of electronic business in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jan), pages 11-34.
    7. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2009. "Rents, learning and risk in the financial sector and other innovative industries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24417, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Sylvain Champonnois, 2011. "The limits of market discipline: proprietary trading and aggregate risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1013, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Geng Li, 2006. "Learning by investing--embodied technology and business cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
    11. Chia‐Hui Chen & Junichiro Ishida, 2021. "A War of Attrition with Experimenting Players," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 239-269, June.
    12. Óscar Gutiérrez & Francisco Ruiz‐Aliseda, 2009. "Entry Patterns Over The Product Life Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(5), pages 594-610, September.
    13. Hajime Tomura, 2008. "A Model of Housing Boom and Bust in a Small Open Economy," Staff Working Papers 08-9, Bank of Canada.
    14. Zhu Wang, 2008. "Income Distribution, Market Size and the Evolution of Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 542-565, July.
    15. Bertomeu, Jeremy, 2009. "Endogenous shakeouts," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 435-440, May.
    16. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2009. "The Lifecycle of the Financial Sector and Other Speculative Industries," TSE Working Papers 09-031, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    17. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2010. "Innovations, Rents and Risk," TSE Working Papers 10-200, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    18. Boris Podobnik & Davor Horvatic & Alexander M. Petersen & Branko Urov{s}evi'c & H. Eugene Stanley, 2010. "Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests," Papers 1011.2670, arXiv.org.
    19. Meagher, Kieron J. & Wong, Arlene & Zauner, Klaus G., 2020. "A competitive analysis of fail fast: Shakeout and uncertainty about consumer tastes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 589-600.
    20. Emin M. Dinlersoz & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo, 2004. "The diffusion of electronic business in the U.S," Working Papers 2004-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2005:i:10:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. OHYAMA Atsushi, 2017. "Industry Growth through Spinoffs and Startups," Discussion papers 17057, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Kumar, Praveen & Langberg, Nisan, 2013. "Information manipulation and rational investment booms and busts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 408-425.

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    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General

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