IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01400249.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamics of Innovation and Risk

Author

Listed:
  • B. Biais

    (BFP - Biologie du fruit et pathologie - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UB - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1)

  • J.-C. Rochet

    (MAP5 - UMR 8145 - Mathématiques Appliquées Paris 5 - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 - INSMI-CNRS - Institut National des Sciences Mathématiques et de leurs Interactions - CNRS Mathématiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • P. Woolley

Abstract

We study the dynamics of an innovative industry in which agents learn about the likelihood of negative shocks. Managers can exert risk prevention effort to mitigate the consequences of shocks. If no shock occurs, confidence improves, attracting managers to the innovative sector. But, when confidence becomes high, inefficient managers exerting low risk-prevention effort also enter. This stimulates growth, while reducing risk prevention. The longer the boom, the larger the losses if a shock occurs. Although these dynamics arise in the first-best, asymmetric information generates excessive entry of inefficient managers, earning informational rents, inflating the innovative sector, and increasing its vulnerability

Suggested Citation

  • B. Biais & J.-C. Rochet & P. Woolley, 2015. "Dynamics of Innovation and Risk," Post-Print halshs-01400249, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01400249
    DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhv003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gervais, Simon & Odean, Terrance, 2001. "Learning to be Overconfident," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Alessandro Barbarino & Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Shakeouts And Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(2), pages 385-420, May.
    3. Andrew Ellul & Vijay Yerramilli, 2010. "Stronger Risk Controls, Lower Risk: Evidence from U.S. Bank Holding Companies," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    5. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1997. "Financial Intermediation, Loanable Funds, and The Real Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 663-691.
    6. Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    7. Mr. Bas B. Bakker & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability: How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/006, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrew Atkeson & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2013. "The market for OTC derivatives," Staff Report 479, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Bergemann, Dirk & Hege, Ulrich, 1998. "Venture capital financing, moral hazard, and learning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 703-735, August.
    10. Persons, John C & Warther, Vincent A, 1997. "Boom and Bust Patterns in the Adoption of Financial Innovations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 939-967.
    11. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    12. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    13. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    14. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    15. Diamond, Douglas W, 1991. "Monitoring and Reputation: The Choice between Bank Loans and Directly Placed Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(4), pages 689-721, August.
    16. Rafael Rob, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(4), pages 655-675.
    17. Bengt Holmstrom, 1979. "Moral Hazard and Observability," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 74-91, Spring.
    18. Kent Daniel & Ravi Jagannathan & Soohun Kim, 2012. "Tail Risk in Momentum Strategy Returns," NBER Working Papers 18169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ulf Axelson & Philip Bond, 2015. "Wall Street Occupations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1949-1996, October.
    2. Yuming Zhai & Zhenghuan Cai & Han Lin & Ming Yuan & Ye Mao & Mingchuan Yu, 2022. "Does better environmental, social, and governance induce better corporate green innovation: The mediating role of financing constraints," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(5), pages 1513-1526, September.
    3. Enrico Perotti & Magdelena Rola-Janicka, 2019. "Funding Shocks and Credit Quality," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-060/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    4. Jianxing Wei & Tong Xu, 2018. "A Model of Bank Credit Cycles," 2018 Meeting Papers 610, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Ni, Jian & Xu, Yue & Shi, Jia & Li, Jiali, 2024. "Product innovation in a supply chain with information asymmetry: Is more private information always worse?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 229-240.
    6. Basak, Deepal & Murray, Alexander & Zhao, Yunhui, 2017. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for More Stringent Regulation?," MPRA Paper 81373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shahab, Yasir & Tianzi, Wang & Hussain, Tanveer & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Foreign experience and audit report lag," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Wei, Jianxing & Xu, Tong, 2024. "Banking supervision with loopholes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Deepal Basak & Mr. Yunhui Zhao, 2018. "Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?," IMF Working Papers 2018/123, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Enrico Perotti & Magdalena Rola-Janicka, 2022. "The Good, the Bad, and the Missed Boom," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5025-5056.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2010. "Innovations, rents and risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119082, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2009. "The Lifecycle of the Financial Sector and Other Speculative Industries," TSE Working Papers 09-031, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    3. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2009. "Rents, learning and risk in the financial sector and other innovative industries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24417, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Rodney Ramcharan & Christopher Crowe, 2013. "The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1085-1115, September.
    5. Biais, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Woolley, Paul, 2010. "Innovations, Rents and Risk," TSE Working Papers 10-200, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Kumar, Praveen & Langberg, Nisan, 2013. "Information manipulation and rational investment booms and busts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 408-425.
    7. Marcela Eslava & Xavier Freixas, 2021. "Public Development Banks and Credit Market Imperfections," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1121-1149, August.
    8. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2000. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: A model of the credit channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1931-1950, December.
    9. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2020. "The time has come for banks to say goodbye: New evidence on bank roles and duration effects in relationship terminations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    11. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2010. "Credit supply - Identifying balance-sheet channels with loan applications and granted loans," Working Paper Series 1179, European Central Bank.
    12. Grjebine, Thomas & Szczerbowicz, Urszula & Tripier, Fabien, 2018. "Corporate debt structure and economic recoveries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 77-100.
    13. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    14. Zhu Wang, 2007. "Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 78-105, January.
    15. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    16. Miglo, Anton, 2022. "Theories of financing for entrepreneurial firms: a review," MPRA Paper 115835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Silva, Thiago Christiano & da Silva, Michel Alexandre & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2017. "Systemic risk in financial systems: A feedback approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 97-120.
    18. Guler, Ozan & Mariathasan, Mike & Mulier, Klaas & Okatan, Nejat G., 2019. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply: Review, Synthesis, and Future Directions," MPRA Paper 96542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Begenau, Juliane, 2020. "Capital requirements, risk choice, and liquidity provision in a business-cycle model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 355-378.
    20. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01400249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.