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House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles

  • Todd M. Sinai

This paper describes six stylized patterns among housing markets in the United States that potential explanations of the housing boom and bust should seek to explain. First, individual housing markets in the U.S. experienced considerable heterogeneity in the amplitudes of their cycles. Second, the areas with the biggest boom-bust cycles in the 2000s also had the largest boom-busts in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few telling exceptions. Third, the timing of the cycles differed across housing markets. Fourth, the largest booms and busts, and their timing, seem to be clustered geographically. Fifth, the cross sectional variance of annual house price changes rises in booms and declines in busts. Finally, these stylized facts are robust to controlling for housing demand fundamentals - namely, rents, incomes, or employment - although changes in fundamentals are correlated with changes in prices.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18059.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Publication status: published as House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles , Todd Sinai. in Housing and the Financial Crisis , Glaeser and Sinai. 2013
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18059
Note: EFG ME PE
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  1. Patrick J. Bayer & Christopher Geissler & James W. Roberts, 2011. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Role of Flippers in the Housing Market," Working Papers 11-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  2. Sergio Rebelo & Martin Eichenbaum & Craig Burnside, 2012. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Geissler & Kyle Mangum & James W. Roberts, 2011. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of Investors in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 16784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Cotter, John & Gabriel, Stuart & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Integration and contagion in US housing markets," MPRA Paper 34591, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," Scholarly Articles 2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Andrea Prat, 2010. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2010/546, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  9. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
  10. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
  11. Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. William C. Wheaton & Gleb Nechayev, 2008. "The 1998 ?2005 Housing "Bubble" and the Current "Correction": What’s Different This Time?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26.
  13. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
  14. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Andrew Haughwout & Richard W. Peach & John Sporn & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The supply side of the housing boom and bust of the 2000s," Staff Reports 556, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
  18. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
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