IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles

  • Todd M. Sinai

This paper describes six stylized patterns among housing markets in the United States that potential explanations of the housing boom and bust should seek to explain. First, individual housing markets in the U.S. experienced considerable heterogeneity in the amplitudes of their cycles. Second, the areas with the biggest boom-bust cycles in the 2000s also had the largest boom-busts in the 1980s and 1990s, with a few telling exceptions. Third, the timing of the cycles differed across housing markets. Fourth, the largest booms and busts, and their timing, seem to be clustered geographically. Fifth, the cross sectional variance of annual house price changes rises in booms and declines in busts. Finally, these stylized facts are robust to controlling for housing demand fundamentals - namely, rents, incomes, or employment - although changes in fundamentals are correlated with changes in prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18059.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18059.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles , Todd Sinai. in Housing and the Financial Crisis , Glaeser and Sinai. 2013
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18059
Note: EFG ME PE
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Web page: http://www.nber.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012. "Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 14193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel & Richard Roll, 2011. "Integration and Contagion in US Housing Markets," Working Papers 201131, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 16734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Ortalo-Magné, François & Prat, Andrea, 2010. "Spatial Asset Pricing: A First Step," CEPR Discussion Papers 7842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. William C. Wheaton & Gleb Nechayev, 2008. "The 1998 ?2005 Housing "Bubble" and the Current "Correction": What’s Different This Time?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26.
  8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
  9. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  11. Patrick Bayer & Christopher Geissler & Kyle Mangum & James W. Roberts, 2011. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Strategy and Performance of Investors in the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 16784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Campbell, Sean D. & Davis, Morris A. & Gallin, Joshua & Martin, Robert F., 2009. "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 90-102, September.
  13. Andrew Haughwout & Richard W. Peach & John Sporn & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The Supply Side of the Housing Boom and Bust of the 2000s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 69-104 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
  16. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
  17. Patrick J. Bayer & Christopher Geissler & James W. Roberts, 2011. "Speculators and Middlemen: The Role of Flippers in the Housing Market," Working Papers 11-03, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  18. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.