Integration and Contagion in US Housing Markets
This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of U.S. housing market integration. It then identifies statistical jumps in metropolitan house price returns as well as MSA contemporaneous and lagged jump correlations. Finally, the paper evaluates contagion in housing markets via parametric assessment of MSA house price spatial dynamics. A R-squared measure reveals an upward trend in MSA housing market integration over the 2000s to approximately .83 in 2010. Among California MSAs, the trend was especially pronounced, as average integration increased from about .55 in 1997 to close to .95 in 2008! The 2000s bubble period similarly was characterized by elevated incidence of statistical jumps in housing returns. Again, jump incidence and MSA jump correlations were especially high in California. Analysis of contagion among California markets indicates that house price returns in San Francisco often led those of surrounding communities; in contrast, southern California MSA house price returns appeared to move largely in lock step. The high levels of housing market integration evidenced in the analysis suggest limited investor opportunity to diversify away MSA-specific housing risk. Further, results suggest that macro and policy shocks propagate through a large number of MSA housing markets. Research findings are relevant to all market participants, including institutional investors in MBS as well as those who regulate housing, the housing GSEs, mortgage lenders, and related financial institutions.
|Date of creation:||08 Nov 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Arts Annexe, Belfield, Dublin 4|
Phone: +353 1 7164615
Fax: +353 1 7161108
Web page: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994.
"Time-Varying World Market Integration,"
NBER Working Papers
4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chambet, Anthony & Gibson, Rajna, 2008. "Financial integration, economic instability and trade structure in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 654-675, June.
- Karl Case & John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel, 2011.
"Housing risk and return: Evidence from a housing asset-pricing model,"
- Karl Case & John Cotter & Stuart Gabriel, 2010. "Housing Risk and Return: Evidence From a Housing Asset-Pricing Model," Working Papers 201005, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Schotman, Peter C. & Zalewska, Anna, 2006. "Non-synchronous trading and testing for market integration in Central European emerging markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 462-494, October.
- Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004.
"Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variationÂ,"
OFRC Working Papers Series
2004fe01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2006. "Econometrics of Testing for Jumps in Financial Economics Using Bipower Variation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-30.
- Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2003. "Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation," Economics Papers 2003-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
- Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
- Jiang, George J. & Oomen, Roel C.A., 2008. "Testing for jumps when asset prices are observed with noise-a "swap variance" approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 352-370, June.
- Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999.
"EMU and European Stock Market Integration,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 0.
"What Segments Equity Markets?,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3841-3890.
- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell & Lundblad, Christian T & Siegel, Stephan, 2010. "What Segments Equity Markets?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2010. "What Segments Equity Markets?," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 76, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2009. "What Segments Equity Markets?," NBER Working Papers 14802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 915-940, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geary Tech)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.