Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply
We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States. Comparing the equilibrium house price generated with and without supply constraints in a representative-agent model under irreversibility of housing investment, we derive a relationship between housing returns and changes in supply constraints and determinants of housing demand. Our empirical analysis shows that supply constraints play an important role in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with boom-and-bust behavior. We estimate that, in 19 of the largest MSAs in the United States, supply constraints contributed 25% to the dramatic rise in house prices from 2000 to 2006, and 17% to their sharp fall from 2006 to 2010.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 613 782-8845
Fax: 613 782-8874
Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Todd M. Sinai, 2012.
"House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
18059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2004.
"Was There A Nasdaq Bubble in the Late 1990s?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Saks, Raven E., 2008. "Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 178-195, July.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005.
"Urban Growth and Housing Supply,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
2062, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- David Albouy & Gabriel Ehrlich, 2012. "Metropolitan Land Values and Housing Productivity," NBER Working Papers 18110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Morris A. Davis, 2010.
"housing and the business cycle,"
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,
- Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2001. "Housing and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 01-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Morris Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunnermeier, Markus K & Julliard, Christian, 2007.
"Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," NBER Working Papers 12810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus K Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," FMG Discussion Papers dp579, Financial Markets Group.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Ogaki, Masao, 1995.
"Measuring intertemporal substitution: The role of durable goods,"
13690, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Masao Ogaki & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1078-1098, October.
- Ogaki, M & Reinhart, C-M, 1995. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution : The Role of Durable Goods," RCER Working Papers 404, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Andrew Haughwout & Richard W. Peach & John Sporn & Joseph Tracy, 2012.
"The supply side of the housing boom and bust of the 2000s,"
556, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Andrew Haughwout & Richard W. Peach & John Sporn & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The Supply Side of the Housing Boom and Bust of the 2000s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 69-104 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008.
"Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,"
2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000.
"Land use regulation and new construction,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 639-662, December.
- DiPasquale, Denise, 1999. "Why Don't We Know More about Housing Supply?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 9-23, January.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006.
NBER Working Papers
12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-79, December.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
- Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2004.
"Housing, Consumption and Asset Pricing,"
2004 Meeting Papers
357c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Robert E. Hall, 1981.
"Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption,"
NBER Working Papers
0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Prescott, Edward C & Mehra, Rajnish, 1980. "Recursive Competitive Equilibrium: The Case of Homogeneous Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1365-79, September.
- William C. Wheaton & William Eric Simonton, 2007. "The Secular and Cyclic Behavior of "True" Construction Costs," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26.
- Frech, H. III & Lafferty, Ronald N., 1984. "The effect of the California Coastal Commission on housing prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 105-123, July.
- Dunn, Kenneth B. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 1986. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates under non-separable utility and durability of goods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-55, September.
- Motohiro Yogo, 2006. "A Consumption-Based Explanation of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 539-580, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.