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Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply

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  • Narayan Bulusu
  • Jefferson Duarte
  • Carles Vergara-Alert

Abstract

We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States. Comparing the equilibrium house price generated with and without supply constraints in a representative-agent model under irreversibility of housing investment, we derive a relationship between housing returns and changes in supply constraints and determinants of housing demand. Our empirical analysis shows that supply constraints play an important role in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) with boom-and-bust behavior. We estimate that, in 19 of the largest MSAs in the United States, supply constraints contributed 25% to the dramatic rise in house prices from 2000 to 2006, and 17% to their sharp fall from 2006 to 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan Bulusu & Jefferson Duarte & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2013. "Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply," Staff Working Papers 13-18, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-18
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    Cited by:

    1. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Caines, Colin, 2020. "Can learning explain boom-bust cycles in asset prices? An application to the US housing boom," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Labonne, C. & Lecat, R., 2014. "The housing market: the impact of macroprudential measures in France," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 18, pages 195-206, April.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13289 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Pricing; Economic models;

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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