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The Supply Side of the Housing Boom and Bust of the 2000s

In: Housing and the Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Haughwout
  • Richard W. Peach
  • John Sporn
  • Joseph Tracy

Abstract

The boom and subsequent bust in housing construction and prices over the 2000s is widely regarded as a principal contributor to the Financial Panic of 2007 and the subsequent Great Recession. As of this writing, housing market activity remains at depressed levels as the economy slowly resolves the legacy of excess supply and sharply lower prices. Over 2.6 million foreclosures have been completed since 2008 and 1.9 million foreclosures are in process. Much has been written about the demand side of this pronounced housing cycle, in particular, the innovations in mortgage finance and the loosening of underwriting standards that greatly expanded the pool of potential homebuyers. In this paper, we take a closer look at developments on the supply side of the housing market. Following a short literature review, we begin with a descriptive review of housing production, sales, and prices at the national, regional, and state levels. We then look at developments in the homebuilding industry over this period. We also take a closer look at land markets using a quarterly price index for metropolitan statistical areas with both elastic and inelastic housing supplies across the United States. An important question is to what extent the supply side of the market contributed to the boom/bust dynamics. A second question is whether the significant changes in the industrial organization of the homebuilding industry exacerbated or ameliorated this supply impact.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Haughwout & Richard W. Peach & John Sporn & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The Supply Side of the Housing Boom and Bust of the 2000s," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 69-104 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12620
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grenadier, Steven R, 1995. "The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 95-119, March.
    2. Albert Saiz, 2008. "On Local Housing Supply Elasticity," ERES eres2008_241, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    3. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    4. Brent W. Ambrose & Joe Peek, 2008. "Credit Availability and the Structure of the Homebuilding Industry," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 659-692, December.
    5. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    7. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2005. "Urban Decline and Durable Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(2), pages 345-375, April.
    8. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    9. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Stuart S. Rosenthal, 1999. "Residential Buildings And The Cost Of Construction: New Evidence On The Efficiency Of The Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(2), pages 288-302, May.
    11. repec:arz:wpaper:eres2008-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2000. "Overbuilding: A Game-Theoretic Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 493-522.
    13. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. " The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    14. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June.
    15. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Housing Market Can Boom, Once You Move Out Of Your Mom’s Basement
      by Mark Bergen in Mark Bergen (Econometro) on 2011-12-20 22:06:17

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Crocker H. Liu & Adam Nowak & Stuart Rosenthal, 2014. "Bubbles, Post-Crash Dynamics, and the Housing Market," Working Papers 14-18, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    2. Juan Carmona & Markus Lampe & Joan Rosés, 2017. "Housing affordability during the urban transition in Spain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 70(2), pages 632-658, May.
    3. Todd Sinai, 2012. "House Price Moments in Boom-Bust Cycles," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 19-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hyunseung Oh & Chamna Yoon, 2016. "Residential construction lags across the US and their implications for housing supply," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00002, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    5. Narayan Bulusu & Jefferson Duarte & Carles Vergara-Alert, 2013. "Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply," Staff Working Papers 13-18, Bank of Canada.
    6. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2015. "Heterogeneous expectations, boom-bust housing cycles, and supply conditions: A nonlinear dynamics approach," BERG Working Paper Series 99, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Andrew F. Haughwout & Sarah Sutherland & Joseph Tracy, 2013. "Negative equity and housing investment," Staff Reports 636, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Liu, Crocker H. & Nowak, Adam & Rosenthal, Stuart S., 2016. "Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 55-72.

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