IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/imfswp/58.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

The withdrawal of foreign capital from emerging countries at the height of the recent financial crisis and its quick return sparked a debate about the impact of capital flow surges on asset markets. This paper addresses the response of property prices to an inflow of foreign capital. For that purpose we estimate a panel VAR on a set of Asian emerging market economies, for which the waves of inflows were particularly pronounced, and identify capital inflow shocks based on sign restrictions. Our results suggest that capital inflow shocks have a significant effect on the appreciation of house prices and equity prices. Capital inflow shocks account for - roughly - twice the portion of overall house price changes they explain in OECD countries. We also address crosscountry differences in the house price responses to shocks, which are most likely due to differences in the monetary policy response to capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," IMFS Working Paper Series 58, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:58
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/97735/1/IMFS_WP_58.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    3. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    4. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    5. Gian‐Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 285-342, April.
    6. Deniz O Igan & Heedon Kang, 2011. "Do Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income Limits Work? Evidence From Korea," IMF Working Papers 11/297, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
    8. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    9. Sa, Filipa & Towbin, Pascal & wieladek, tomasz, 2011. "Low interest rates and housing booms: the role of capital inflows, monetary policy and financial innovation," Bank of England working papers 411, Bank of England.
    10. He, Ping & Huang, Lixin & Wright, Randall, 2008. "Money, banking, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1013-1024, September.
    11. Ravi Balakrishnan & Sylwia Nowak & Sanjaya Panth & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Surging Capital Flows To Emerging Asia: Facts, Impacts And Responses," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-24.
    12. Jinjarak, Yothin & Sheffrin, Steven M., 2011. "Causality, real estate prices, and the current account," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 233-246, June.
    13. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    14. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
    15. Mahmood Pradhan & Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/10, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
    17. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    18. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    19. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross Country Evidence," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Maria Teresa Punzi, 2013. "Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 601-613, September.
    21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    22. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yong Yang, 2009. "Do Capital Inflows Matter to Asset Prices? The Case of Korea ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 323-348, September.
    23. R. S Craig & Changchun Hua, 2011. "Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong SAR; Implications for Policy," IMF Working Papers 11/277, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.
    25. Jack Favilukis & David Kohn & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2012. "International Capital Flows and House Prices: Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 235-299 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    27. Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2010. "Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Asian Countries," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 210, Asian Development Bank.
    28. Prakash Kannan & Pau Rabanal & Alasdair Scott, 2011. "Recurring patterns in the run-up to house price busts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 107-113.
    29. Ben S. Bernanke, 2010. "Monetary policy and the housing bubble: a speech at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Atlanta, Georgia, January 3, 2010," Speech 499, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    30. Haibin Zhu, 2006. "The structure of housing finance markets and house prices in Asia," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    31. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "On the Heterogeneity Bias of Pooled Estimators in Stationary VAR Specifications," IMF Working Papers 03/73, International Monetary Fund.
    32. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
    33. Fidora, Michael & Bracke, Thierry, 2008. "Global liquidity glut or global savings glut? A structural VAR approach," Working Paper Series 911, European Central Bank.
    34. Soyoung Kim & Doo Yang, 2011. "The Impact of Capital Inflows on Asset Prices in Emerging Asian Economies: Is Too Much Money Chasing Too Little Good?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, April.
    35. Cédric Tille, 2012. "Sailing Through This Storm? Capital Flows In Asia During The Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 467-488, August.
    36. Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Real Effects Of Monetary Policy In Large Emerging Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 190-212, September.
    37. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2010:x:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Christopher W. Crowe & Deniz O Igan, 2011. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
    40. Eric Wong & Tom Fong & Ka-fai Li & Henry Choi, 2011. "Loan-to-Value Ratio as a Macro-Prudential Tool - Hong Kong's Experience and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 1101, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ning, Ye & Wang, Yiming & Yang, Zhenyu & Geng, Yan, 2017. "Measurement and multifractal properties of short-term international capital flows in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 714-721.
    2. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:8:p:1445-:d:108516 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    4. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    5. Yamamoto, Shugo, 2014. "Transmission of US financial and trade shocks to Asian economies: Implications for spillover of the 2007–2009 US financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 88-103.
    6. Tng Boon Hwa & Mala Raghavan & Teh Tian Huey, 2017. "Macroeconomic surveillance of portfolio flows and its real effects: Malaysia's experience," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2016. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Resilience of Banks to Property Price Shocks ¡V Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 120-149.
    8. Pınar Yeşin, 2015. "Capital Flow Waves to and from Switzerland before and after the Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(I), pages 27-75, March.
    9. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:1:p:56-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Pravakar Sahoo & Geethanjali Nataraj, 2015. "Capital flows and asset prices: Empirical evidence from emerging and developing economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 141, pages 1-14.
    11. Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2017. "House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 22-28.
    12. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:548-567 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    14. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:97-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ohno, Sanae & Shimizu, Junko, 2015. "Do exchange rate arrangements and capital controls influence international capital flows and housing prices in Asia?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    16. Nasha Ananchotikul & Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Portfolio Flows, Global Risk Aversion and Asset Prices in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 14/156, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Merike Kukk, 2017. "Asymmetries in the interaction between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2017-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 25 May 2017.
    18. Matthew S. Yiu & Sahminan Sahminan, 2017. "Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 20(1), pages 105-126.
    19. Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2018. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area and TARGET2 Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 6877, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Inflows; House Prices; Monetary Policy; Sign Restrictions; Panel VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:58. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/hoffmde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.