Recurring patterns in the run-up to house price busts
We present evidence that shows that large increases in credit and residential investment shares, along with deteriorating current account balances, provide useful leading indicators of house price busts. These variables also explain cross-sectional patterns in the build-up to the 2007 crisis. Interestingly, movements in output and inflation have little ability to predict house price busts.
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Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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