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Recurring patterns in the run-up to house price busts


  • Prakash Kannan
  • Pau Rabanal
  • Alasdair Scott


We present evidence that shows that large increases in credit and residential investment shares, along with deteriorating current account balances, provide useful leading indicators of house price busts. These variables also explain cross-sectional patterns in the build-up to the 2007 crisis. Interestingly, movements in output and inflation have little ability to predict house price busts.

Suggested Citation

  • Prakash Kannan & Pau Rabanal & Alasdair Scott, 2011. "Recurring patterns in the run-up to house price busts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 107-113.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:107-113 DOI: 10.1080/13504850903427161

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karolien De Bruyne & Jan Van Hove, 2013. "Explaining the spatial variation in housing prices: an economic geography approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1673-1689, May.
    2. Fabrizio Orrego, 2017. "Precios de viviendas en Lima," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce (ed.), Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 237-265 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.

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