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Capital Flows in the Euro Area and TARGET2 Balances

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  • Wollmershäuser, Timo

Abstract

We estimate a panel VAR model for the euro area to quantitatively asses the contribution of the TARGET2 system to the propagation of different types of structural economic shocks as well as to the historical evolution of aggregate economic activity in euro area member countries. Our results suggest that TARGET2 has significantly affected the transmission of capital ow shocks while leaving the macroeconomic responses to other aggregate shocks virtually unaltered. Furthermore, on basis of counterfactual analyses, we find that TARGET2 has contributed substantially to avoid deeper recessions in distressed periphery member countries like Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal, while to a smaller degree depressing aggregate economic activity in core member states, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.

Suggested Citation

  • Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2018. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area and TARGET2 Balances," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181648, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc18:181648
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Gräb, Johannes, 2022. "E pluribus plures: shock dependency of the USD pass-through to real and financial variables," Working Paper Series 2684, European Central Bank.
    3. Krahnen, Jan Pieter, 2018. "Über Scheinriesen: Was TARGET-Salden tatsächlich bedeuten. Eine finanzökonomische Überprüfung," SAFE White Paper Series 56, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2021. "Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation—Empirical evidence for Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1164-1190.
    5. Giovannini, Alessandro & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Public and private risk sharing: friends or foes? The interplay between different forms of risk sharing," Occasional Paper Series 295, European Central Bank.
    6. Chmielewski Tomasz & Sławiński Andrzej, 2019. "Lessons from TARGET2 imbalances: The case for the ECB being a lender of last resort," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 48-63, June.
    7. Bettendorf, Timo & Jochem, Axel, 2021. "What drives the German TARGET balances? Evidence from a BVAR approach," Discussion Papers 12/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    Keywords

    euro area; TARGET2 balances; capital inflow shocks; panel vector autoregressive model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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