Conditional forecasts on SVAR models using the Kalman filter
This note shows how conditional forecasts from identified VAR models can be computed using Kalman filtering techniques. These techniques are nowadays routine for applied macroeconomists, and hence the computation of conditional forecasts using these methods are simple to implement.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Jarocinski, Marek, 2010. "Conditional forecasts and uncertainty about forecast revisions in vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 257-259, September.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Hamilton, James D., 1986. "A standard error for the estimated state vector of a state-space model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 387-397, December.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
- Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998. "Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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