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Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom




We estimate an open‐economy vector autoregressive (VAR) model to study the effect of capital‐inflow shocks on the U.S. housing market. We look at different external shocks that generate capital inflows to the U.S., in particular “saving‐glut” shocks and foreign monetary‐policy expansions. The shocks are identified with theoretically robust sign restrictions derived from an open‐economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Our findings suggest that capital inflows that result from “saving‐glut” shocks have a positive and persistent effect on real house prices and real residential investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Filipa Sá & Tomasz Wieladek, 2015. "Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 221-256, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:s1:p:221-256
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12200

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    Cited by:

    1. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2020. "Capital flows in the euro area and TARGET2 balances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Franjo, Luis, 2018. "International interest rates, the current account and housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 268-280.
    3. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Current account dynamics and the housing cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-43.
    4. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2020. "International Housing Markets, Unconventional Monetary Policy, And The Zero Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 774-806, June.
    5. McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
    6. Thorsten Klug & Eric Mayer & Tobias Schuler, 2018. "The Corporate Saving Glut and the Current Account in Germany," ifo Working Paper Series 280, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Daniel L. Tortorice, 2019. "Long-Run Expectations, Learning and the US Housing Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 497-531, October.
    8. Alok Johri & Muhebullah Karimzada, 2015. "Learning Efficiency Shocks, Knowledge Capital and the Business Cycle : A Bayesian Evaluation," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-11, McMaster University.
    9. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Expectations During the U.S. Housing Boom: Inferring Beliefs from Actions," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    11. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2015. "What drives housing dynamics in China? A sign restrictions VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-112.
    12. Andrea Deghi & Mitsuru Katagiri & Sohaib Shahid & Nico Valckx, 2020. "Predicting Downside Risks to House Prices and Macro-Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 20/11, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Damien Puy & Anil Ari & Yu Shi, 2020. "Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US," IMF Working Papers 20/43, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Maria Chiara Cavalleri & Boris Cournède & Volker Ziemann, 2019. "Housing markets and macroeconomic risks," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1555, OECD Publishing.

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