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Borrowing with unobserved liquidity constraints structural estimation with an application to sovereign debt

  • Adda, Jérôme
  • Eaton, Jonathan

We develop a framework for estimating the otpimal expenditure of agents subject to unobserved liquidity constraints. Our framework allows us to estimate credit ceilings as well as preferences parameters. We apply the framework to data on net resource transfers from private lenders to twenty-nine sovereign debtors during 1973-1993. We obtain reasonable estimates of the discount factor, elasticity of marginal utility of expenditure, and the credit ceilings for most countries. Our estimated credit ceilings rise quite regularly with income across the countries of our sample, and are positively associated with a country's trade, in line with several theoretical arguments. Our estimates imply that slightly less than half the countries in our sample were liguidity constrained during the 1970s. The fraction rose to around 80 per cent in the mid 1980s and subsequently declined.

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Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) with number 9806.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:9806
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  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Staff Report 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Chambers, Marcus J & Bailey, Roy E, 1996. "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 924-57, October.
  3. Angus Deaton, 1989. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers 3196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  5. Daniel Cohen, 1992. "The Debt Crisis: A Postmortem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 65-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Richard H. Clarida, 1984. "Consumption, Liquidity Constraints and Asset Accumulation in the Presence of Random Income Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 705R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1985.
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  9. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Kenneth M. Kletzer and Brian D. Wright., 1998. "Sovereign Debt as Intertemporal Barter," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C98-100, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
  12. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Ossard, Herve & Vuong, Quang, 1995. "Econometrics of First-Price Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 953-80, July.
  14. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
  15. Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995. "Sovereign Debt," NBER Working Papers 5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
  17. René Garcia & Serena Ng & Annamaria Lusardi, 1995. "Excess Sensitivity and Asymmetries in Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-09, CIRANO.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  19. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  20. Karen K. Lewis, 1997. "Are Countries with Official International Restrictions "Liquidity Constrained?"," NBER Working Papers 5991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
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  24. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Lewis, Karen K., 1997. "Are countries with official international restrictions 'liquidity constrained'?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1079-1109, June.
  26. Tullio Jappelli & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1998. "Testing For Liquidity Constraints In Euler Equations With Complementary Data Sources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 251-262, May.
  27. Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1985. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Working Papers 1703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November.
  29. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  30. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-36, February.
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