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New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • William R. Cline

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • John Williamson

    () (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Cline and Williamson present estimates of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) of leading advanced and emerging-market economies: The US dollar remains significantly overvalued against a number of Asian currencies, most prominently the Chinese renminbi and, to a lesser extent, the Japanese yen. The euro and the pound are overvalued on a multilateral basis but have not overshot greatly against the dollar; the depreciation in their multilateral exchange rates should come largely from the appreciations of a number of Asian currencies if it is to contribute positively to the adjustment process. The Asian currencies that should appreciate most are the Singapore dollar, the Chinese renminbi, the Malaysian ringgit, the New Taiwan dollar, and the Japanese yen. The authors estimate the misalignment of currencies in 30 economies and find the set of exchange rates against the dollar needed to correct all these misalignments simultaneously. The estimates of misalignments are based on a set of current account targets that do not in general exceed 3 percent of GDP, whether deficits or surpluses. Adjustments needed to reach these targets are translated into needed exchange rate realignments using Cline's symmetric matrix inversion method (SMIM) model. This model is explained in detail in Working Paper 08-6 by Cline.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2008. "New Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB08-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb08-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeanne, Olivier, 2012. "The dollar and its discontents," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1976-1989.
    2. Robert Dekle & Murat Ungor, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Structural Transformation(s) of China and the U.S," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 303-319, June.
    3. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2010. "Exchange Rate Misalignments at World and European Levels: a FEER Approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 121, pages 25-58.
    4. Yao, Yang, 2014. "The Chinese Growth Miracle," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 7, pages 943-1031 Elsevier.
    5. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Marco Antônio Silveira De Almeida, 2011. "Why Does Real Exchange Rate Overvalue Inbrazil? Theoretical Determinants, Empirical Evidence And Economicpolicy Dilemmas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 237, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2012. "Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB12-23, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Morris GOLDSTEIN & Daniel XIE, 2009. "US Credit Crisis and Spillovers to Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 204-222.
    8. William R. Cline, 2008. "Estimating Consistent Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Paper Series WP08-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    9. Cécile Couharde & Anne-Laure Delatte & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2017. "EQCHANGE: A World Database on Actual and Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2017-14, CEPII research center.
    10. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
    11. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2015. "Assessing Asian Equilibrium Exchange Rates as Policy Instruments," Discussion papers 15038, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2014. "Alternatives to Currency Manipulation: What Switzerland, Singapore, and Hong Kong Can Do," Policy Briefs PB14-17, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    13. Luo, Ji & Williams, Gary W., 2015. "The Impacts of Chinese Exchange Rate Policy on World Soybean and Products Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205075, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2012. "Déséquilibres globaux, taux de change d’équilibre et modélisation stock-flux cohérente
      [Global Imbalances, Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Stock-Flow Consistent Modelling]
      ," MPRA Paper 51332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pedro Bação & António Portugal Durate & Mariana Simões, 2013. "The International Monetary System in Flux: Overview and Prospects," GEMF Working Papers 2013-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    16. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and World Imbalances: a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Post-Print halshs-00484808, HAL.

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