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The New OECD International Trade Model

Author

Listed:
  • Nigel Pain
  • Annabelle Mourougane
  • Franck Sédillot
  • Laurence Le Fouler

Abstract

This paper provides a detailed description of recent research to re-estimate and re-specify the international trade volume and price equations that are used in the OECD Economics Department to analyse international trade developments. New panel data estimates of the factors affecting export performance, import penetration and exchange rate pass-through into trade prices are reported for both OECD and non-OECD economies. The model set out has already been used successfully to monitor the global consistency of the international trade projections in the Economic Outlook. Le nouveau modèle du commerce international de l'OCDE Cette étude présente de façon détaillée la respecification et la réestimation des équations de commerce extérieur (prix et volumes) qui sont utilisées par le Département des Affaires Économiques de l'OCDE pour analyser les développements du commerce mondial. L'impact des facteurs influençant la performance à l'exportation, le taux de pénétration des importations et l'effet du taux de change sur les prix du commerce extérieur des zones OCDE et non OCDE est estimé par le biais de données de panel. Le model présenté a déjà été mis en oeuvre avec succès pour assurer la cohérence globale des prévisions des flux commerciaux publiées dans les Perspectives Économiques de l'OCDE.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel Pain & Annabelle Mourougane & Franck Sédillot & Laurence Le Fouler, 2005. "The New OECD International Trade Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 440, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:440-en
    DOI: 10.1787/680050777016
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/680050777016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting model; international trade prices; international trade volumes; modèle de prévision; prix du commerce extérieur; volumes du commerce extérieur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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