IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/18176.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Income inequality, tax base and sovereign spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yothin Jinjarak

Abstract

This paper investigates the association between greater income inequality, de-facto fiscal space, and sovereign spreads. Using data from 50 countries in 2007, 2009 and 2011, we find that higher income inequality is associated with a lower tax base, lower de-facto fiscal space, and higher sovereign spreads. The economic magnitude of these effects is large: at the margin, a one point of the Gini coefficient of inequality (in a scale of 0-100), is associated in 2011 with a lower tax base of 2 percent of the GDP, and with a higher sovereign spread of 45 basis points.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "Income inequality, tax base and sovereign spreads," NBER Working Papers 18176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18176
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18176.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    2. Frey, Bruno S. & Torgler, Benno, 2007. "Tax morale and conditional cooperation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 136-159, March.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2011. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-10: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 17427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    5. Roland Benabou, 2000. "Unequal Societies: Income Distribution and the Social Contract," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 96-129, March.
    6. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    7. Luiz de Mello & Erwin R. Tiongson, 2006. "Income Inequality and Redistributive Government Spending," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(3), pages 282-305, May.
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 301-342.
    9. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    10. Branko Milanovic & Peter H. Lindert & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Pre‐Industrial Inequality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 255-272, March.
    11. Reardon, Thomas & Lovell, Richard D. & Peter, Rufina & Mbithi, Stephen & Glover, John & McKinna, David & Fels, Allan & Reid, Margaret, 2011. "Q and A," 2011: The Supermarket Revolution in Food: Good, Bad or Ugly for the World's Farmers, Consumers and Retailers?, 14-16 August 2011 125336, Crawford Fund.
    12. Rosser, J. Jr. & Rosser, Marina V. & Ahmed, Ehsan, 2000. "Income Inequality and the Informal Economy in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 156-171, March.
    13. Jonathan Haughton & Shahidur R. Khandker, 2009. "Handbook on Poverty and Inequality," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11985.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," Working Papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    2. Minjie Deng, 2024. "Inequality, Taxation, and Sovereign Default Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 217-249, April.
    3. Santo Milasi, 2014. "Top Income Shares and Budget Deficits," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 383-406, January-M.
    4. Achillefs Karakotsios & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Dimitrios Dimitriadis & Theodoros Christoforidis, 2020. "Examining the relationship between income inequality, taxation and economic freedom: a panel cointegration approach," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 206-215.
    5. Lin Yang, 2018. "The relationship between poverty and inequality: Resource constraint mechanisms," CASE Papers /212, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    6. Lin Yang, 2018. "The net effect of housing-related costs and advantages on the relationship between inequality and poverty," CASE Papers /211, Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
    7. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Sovereign debt in emerging market countries: not all of them are serial defaulters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(59), pages 6406-6443, December.
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Hien Thi Kim Nguyen & Donghyun Park, 2018. "Fiscal Space and Government-Spending & Tax-Rate Cyclicality Patterns: A Cross-Country Comparison, 1960-2016," NBER Working Papers 25012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Carrera, Jorge & de la Vega, Pablo, 2021. "The impact of income inequality on public debt," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    10. Canale, Rosaria Rita & Liotti, Giorgio & Marani, Ugo, 2019. "Structural public balance adjustment and poverty in Europe," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-236.
    11. Islam, Md. Rabiul & Madsen, Jakob B. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2018. "Does inequality constrain the power to tax? Evidence from the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Carlos Bethencourt & Lars Kunze, 2015. "The political economics of redistribution, inequality and tax avoidance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 267-287, June.
    13. Froemel, Maren & Paczos, Wojtek, 2024. "Imperfect financial markets and the cyclicality of social spending," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    14. Steenkamp, Daan & Havemann, Roy & Hollander, Hylton, 2022. "The macroeconomics of establishing a basic income grant in South Africa," MPRA Paper 114614, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Andreasen, Eugenia & Sandleris, Guido & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2019. "The political economy of sovereign defaults," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 23-36.
    16. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Hien Thi Kim Nguyen & Donghyun Park, 2018. "Fiscal Space and Government-Spending & Tax-Rate Cyclicality Patterns: A Cross-Country Comparison, 1960-2016," NBER Working Papers 25012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Musharraf Cyan & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & VIoleta Vulovic, 2013. "Measuring tax effort: Does the estimation approach matter and should effort be linked to expenditure goals?," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper1308, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    18. Tran-Xuan, Monica, 2023. "Optimal redistributive policy in debt constrained economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Scholl, Almuth, 2024. "The politics of redistribution and sovereign default," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    20. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Omar Osman, 2021. "Income Inequality and Financial Disturbances: Does Income Inequality Engender Financial Crises?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 417-442, September.
    22. Yang, Lin, 2018. "The relationship between poverty and inequality: resource constraint mechanisms," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103463, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    23. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Sovereign Spreads and Corporate Taxation," IHEID Working Papers 15-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    24. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Nguyen, Hien Thi Kim & Park, Donghyun, 2019. "Fiscal space and government-spending and tax-rate cyclicality patterns: A cross-country comparison, 1960–2016," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 229-252.
    25. Luigino Bruni & Giovanni Ferri, 2015. "oes Cooperativeness Promote Happiness? Cross-country Evidence," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 107, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joshua Aizenman, 2012. "The Euro and the global crises: finding the balance between short term stabilization and forward looking reforms," NBER Working Papers 18138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Paraskevi K. Salamaliki & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2024. "Fiscal Space and Policy Response to Financial Crises: Market Access and Deficit Concerns," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 323-361, April.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2013. "Special Issue. Guest Editor: Zhihao Yu," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 397-413, August.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2012. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(1), pages 301-342.
    5. Hoi Wai Jackie Cheng & Ingo Pitterle, 2018. "Towards a more comprehensive assessment of fiscal space," Working Papers 153, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    6. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon & Jean-François Brun, 2020. "Tax reform and fiscal space in developing countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(2), pages 237-265, June.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2016. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 151-177, May.
    9. Bergant, Katharina & Forbes, Kristin, 2023. "Policy packages and policy space: Lessons from COVID-19☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Gnangnon Sena Kimm, 2018. "Export Product Concentration and De Facto Fiscal Space: Does Openness to International Trade matter?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, March.
    11. Cinzia Alcidi & Ansgar Belke & Alessandro Giovannini & Daniel Gros, 2016. "Macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area: an overall assessment," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 345-358, July.
    12. Sérgio C. Lagoa & Emanuel R. Leão & Diptes P. Bhimjee, 2022. "Dynamics of the public-debt-to-gdp ratio: can it explain the risk premium of treasury bonds?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1089-1122, November.
    13. Jarmila Botev & Jean-Marc Fournier & Annabelle Mourougane, 2016. "A Re-assessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1352, OECD Publishing.
    14. Benabou, Roland, 2005. "Inequality, Technology and the Social Contract," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1595-1638, Elsevier.
    15. Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Quantitative easing and the pricing of EMU sovereign debt," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    16. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Amit Nandan & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2022. "Do growth-promoting factors induce income inequality in a transitioning large developing economy? An empirical evidence from Indian states," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1109-1139, May.
    18. Joan Esteban & Laurence Kranich, 2003. "The Social Contracts with Endogenous Sentiments," Working Papers 71, Barcelona School of Economics.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hacc56d41 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iak4384sp is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    22. Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2022. "The determinants of social expenditures in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 233-261, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.