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Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?

Author

Listed:
  • Nadav Ben Zeev
  • Valerie A. Ramey
  • Sarah Zubairy

Abstract

We analyze whether government spending multipliers differ by the sign of the shock. Using aggregate historical U.S. data, we apply Ben Zeev’s (2020) nonlinear diagnostic tests and find evidence of nonlinearities in the impulse response functions of both government spending and GDP. We then extend Ramey and Zubairy’s (2018) framework to allow for asymmetric effects as a type of state dependence to estimate multipliers. While we find differences in the impulse response functions, the resulting multipliers do not differ by sign of the shock. Thus, we find no evidence of asymmetry of government spending multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadav Ben Zeev & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2023. "Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?," NBER Working Papers 31015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31015
    Note: EFG ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Hack, Lukas & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    3. Bechchani, Khalil, 2025. "When neighbors tighten belts: Exploring austerity’s spillover effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Damiano Di Francesco & Omar Pietro Carnevale, 2025. "Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear?," LEM Papers Series 2025/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Ramesh Chandra Das, 2025. "Interrelationships Among Government Participation, Population and Growth of per Capita Income: Inquiry on Top Twenty Income-Holding Countries in the World," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-29, February.
    7. Klieber, Karin & Coulombe, Philippe Goulet, 2025. "Opening the black box of local projections," Working Paper Series 3105, European Central Bank.
    8. Nicolò Maffei‐Faccioli, 2025. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand Versus Supply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 181-194, March.
    9. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Karin Klieber, 2025. "Opening the Black Box of Local Projections," Papers 2505.12422, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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