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Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • David Berger

    (Northwestern University)

  • Fabrice Tourre

    (Copenhagen Business School)

  • Joseph Vavra

    (University of Chicago)

  • Konstantin Milbradt

    (Northwestern University)

Abstract

How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • David Berger & Fabrice Tourre & Joseph Vavra & Konstantin Milbradt, 2019. "Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 175, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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