The Mortgage Rate Conundrum
We document the emergence of a disconnect between mortgage and Treasury interest rates in the summer of 2003. Following the end of the Federal Reserve expansionary cycle in June 2003, mortgage rates failed to rise according to their historical relationship with Treasury yields, leading to significantly and persistently easier mortgage credit conditions. We uncover this phenomenon by analyzing a large dataset with millions of loan-level observations, which allows us to control for the impact of varying loan, borrower and geographic characteristics. These detailed data also reveal that delinquency rates started to rise for loans originated after mid 2003, exactly when mortgage rates disconnected from Treasury yields and credit became relatively cheaper.
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|Date of creation:||Sep 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
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- Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2015. "Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications during the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005," NBER Working Papers 20947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kathleen Scanlon & Melissa Fernández Arrigoitia & Christine M E Whitehead, 2015. "Social housing in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62938, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Un-Habitat, 2015. "Housing Finance Mechanisms in India," Working Papers id:7549, eSocialSciences.
- Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
- Tim Landvoigt & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "The Housing Market(s) of San Diego," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1371-1407, April.
- Martin Schneider, 2015. "Comment on "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 167-175 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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