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The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

Author

Listed:
  • Giorgio Primiceri

    (Northwestern University)

  • Andrea Tambalotti

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Alejandro Justiniano

    (Federal Reerve Chicago)

Abstract

We document the emergence of a disconnect between mortgage and Treasury interest rates in the summer of 2003. Following the end of the Federal Reserve easing cycle in June 2003, mortgage rates failed to rise according to their historical relationship with Treasury yields, leaving mortgage rates persistently depressed. We label this phenomenon the “mortgage rate conundrum,” because it echoes the under-reaction of long-term Treasury rates to the rise in the Federal Funds rate during the subsequent tightening cycle highlighted by Alan Greenspan. We uncover this phenomenon by analyzing a large dataset with millions of loan-level observations. These detailed data allow us to control for a variety of loan, borrower and geographic characteristics, guaranteeing that the low level of mortgage rates after mid 2003 was not just due to a change in observable risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti & Alejandro Justiniano, 2017. "The Mortgage Rate Conundrum," 2017 Meeting Papers 471, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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