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An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?

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  • Chris Downing
  • Richard Stanton
  • Nancy Wallace

Abstract

This article develops a two-factor structural mortgage pricing model in which rational mortgage-holders choose when to prepay and default in response to changes in both interest rates and house prices. We estimate the model using comprehensive data on the pool-level termination rates for Freddie Mac Participation Certificates issued between 1991 and 2002. The model exhibits a statistically and economically significant improvement over the nested one-factor (interest-rate only) model in its ability to match historical prepayment data. Moreover, the two-factor model produces origination prices that are significantly closer to those quoted in the to-be-announced market than the one-factor model. Our results have important implications for hedging mortgage-backed securities. Copyright 2005 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Downing & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2005. "An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 681-710, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:33:y:2005:i:4:p:681-710
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    2. Foote, Christopher L. & Willen, Paul S., 2017. "Mortgage-default research and the recent foreclosure crisis," Working Papers 17-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David I. Laibson, 2013. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed‐Form Solution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 591-622, June.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Richard J. Rosen & Vincent Yao, 2016. "Why Do Borrowers Make Mortgage Refinancing Mistakes?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3494-3509, December.
    5. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
    6. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Nicholas Sharp & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2008. "An Improved Fixed-Rate Mortgage Valuation Methodology with Interacting Prepayment and Default Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 307-342, April.
    8. Mikhail Chernov & Brett R. Dunn & Francis A. Longstaff, 2016. "Macroeconomic-Driven Prepayment Risk and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," NBER Working Papers 22096, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fernández Lexuri & Hieber Peter & Scherer Matthias, 2013. "Double-barrier first-passage times of jump-diffusion processes," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-141, July.
    10. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    11. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy & Munpyung O, 2009. "Mortgage default and mortgage valuation," Working Paper Series 2009-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    13. Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John D. & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Optimal Mortgage Reï¬ nancing: A Closed Form Solution," Scholarly Articles 9918811, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    14. Nikolai Roussanov & Michael Michaux & Hui Chen, 2011. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 1369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. European Central Bank & Stefano Corradin, 2009. "Household Leverage," 2009 Meeting Papers 906, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Poitras, Geoffrey & Zanotti, Giovanna, 2016. "Mortgage contract design and systemic risk immunization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 320-331.
    17. Peter Diep & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Scott Richardson, 2016. "Prepayment Risk and Expected MBS Returns," NBER Working Papers 22851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Xin Wang & Chris Downing, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 38, Society for Computational Economics.
    19. Giulia De Rossi & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2010. "Optimal prepayment and default rules for mortgage-backed securities," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 33(1), pages 23-47, May.
    20. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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