IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20212620.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment

Author

Listed:
  • van den End, Jan Willem
  • Konietschke, Paul
  • Samarina, Anna
  • Stanga, Irina M.

Abstract

This paper investigates how the monetary policy transmission channels change once the economy is in a low interest rate environment. We estimate a nonlinear model for the euro area and its five largest countries over the period 1999q2-2019q1 and allow for the effects of monetary policy shocks to be state dependent. Using smooth transition local projections, we examine the impulse responses of investment, savings, consumption, and the output gap to an expansionary monetary policy shock under normal and low interest rate regimes. We find evidence for a macroeconomic reversal rate related to the substitution effects becoming weaker relative to the income effects in a low interest rate regime. In this regime the effects of monetary policy shocks are either less powerful or reverse sign compared with a normal rate regime. JEL Classification: E21, E22, E43, E52

Suggested Citation

  • van den End, Jan Willem & Konietschke, Paul & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2021. "Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2620, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2620~3a61a7d326.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Coleman, Nicholas & Donnelly, Michael, 2018. "“Low-For-Long” interest rates and banks’ interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 1-16.
    2. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    3. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    4. Gauti B Eggertsson & Ragnar E Juelsrud & Lawrence H Summers & Ella Getz, 2024. "Negative Nominal Interest Rates and the Bank Lending Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(4), pages 2201-2275.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    6. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    7. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    8. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    10. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2022. "Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 106-122, March.
    11. Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2024. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 543-563, June.
    12. Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-266.
    13. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    15. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    16. Alessandro Galesi & Omar Rachedi, 2019. "Services Deepening and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1261-1293.
    17. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2004. "Estimating the Euler equation for output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1133-1153, September.
    18. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    19. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    20. Sami Alpanda & Sarah Zubairy, 2019. "Household Debt Overhang and Transmission of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1265-1307, August.
    21. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    22. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The IS curve and the transmission of monetary policy: is there a puzzle?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 29-36.
    23. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2017. "Liquidity Traps and Jobless Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 165-204, January.
    24. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Thomas I. Palley & Louis-Philippe Rochon & Guillaume Vallet, 2019. "The economics of negative interest rates," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 135-136, April.
    26. Regis Barnichon & Christian Brownlees, 2019. "Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 522-530, July.
    27. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    28. Kuester, Keith & Gornemann, Nils & Nakajima, Makoto, 2016. "Doves for the Rich, Hawks for the Poor? Distributional Consequences of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    29. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    30. Santoro, Emiliano & Petrella, Ivan & Pfajfar, Damjan & Gaffeo, Edoardo, 2014. "Loss aversion and the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 19-36.
    31. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes & Timothy Sablik, 2017. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue March.
    32. Berthold Herrendorf & Richard Rogerson & ?kos Valentinyi, 2013. "Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2752-2789, December.
    33. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian, 2018. "Functional Approximation of Impulse Responses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 41-55.
    34. repec:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i::p:409-426 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Andrea Colciago & Anna Samarina & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "Central Bank Policies And Income And Wealth Inequality: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 1199-1231, September.
    36. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Redistributive monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 331-384.
    37. Anna Florio, 2004. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 409-426, July.
    38. Kleibergen, Frank & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2009. "Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 293-311.
    39. Ascari, Guido & Magnusson, Leandro M. & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for consumption in the US," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 129-152.
    40. Bofinger, Peter & Ries, Mathias, 2017. "Excess saving and low interest rates: Theory and empirical evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    41. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    42. Thomas I. Palley, 2019. "The fallacy of the natural rate of interest and zero lower bound economics: why negative interest rates may not remedy Keynesian unemployment," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 151-170, April.
    43. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    44. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Willem van den End & Paul Konietschke & Anna Samarina & Irina M. Stanga, 2020. "Macroeconomic reversal rate: evidence from a nonlinear IS-curve," Working Papers 684, DNB.
    2. Davide Debortoli & Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Asymmetric monetary policy tradeoffs," Economics Working Papers 1742, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Davide Debortoli & Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Easing and Tightening," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 146, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    5. Jordi Galí, 2018. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 87-112, Summer.
    6. Mary Everett & Jakob de Haan & David‐Jan Jansen & Peter McQuade & Anna Samarina, 2021. "Mortgage lending, monetary policy, and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 117-143, February.
    7. Max Breitenlechner & Johann Scharler, 2020. "Private Sector Debt, Financial Constraints, and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 889-915, August.
    8. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Kilman, Josefin, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Income Inequality in the United States: The Role of Labor Unions," Working Papers 2020:10, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    10. Aragón, Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2023. "Shock-based inference on the Phillips curve with the cost channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    11. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2024. "Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Inequality in the Euro Area?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 35-80, February.
    12. Anna Samarina & Anh D.M. Nguyen, 2019. "Does monetary policy affect income inequality in the euro area?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 61, Bank of Lithuania.
    13. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    14. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920, February.
    15. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Mario Giarda, 2021. "The Labor Earnings Gap, Heterogeneous Wage Phillips Curves, and Monetary Policy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 934, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Peydró, José-Luis & Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Panetti, Ettore & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registe," CEPR Discussion Papers 16549, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Max Breitenlechner & Martin Geiger & Mathias Klein, 2024. "The Fiscal Channel of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2024-07, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    19. Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2024. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 543-563, June.
    20. Alpanda, Sami & Granziera, Eleonora & Zubairy, Sarah, 2021. "State dependence of monetary policy across business, credit and interest rate cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    low interest rate environment; monetary policy; reversal rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.