IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28066.html

Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand

Author

Listed:
  • Alisdair McKay
  • Johannes F. Wieland

Abstract

Durable goods attenuate the power of forward guidance. The extensive and intensive margins of durable goods demand are both more sensitive to the contemporaneous user cost than to future user costs. Changes in the contemporaneous real interest rate directly affect the contemporaneous user cost and durable demand, whereas promises of low future real interest rates have weaker effects through equilibrium price changes. Quantitatively, reducing the real interest rate one year from now increases output by only forty percent as much as reducing the real interest rate today. Our results are little affected by the maturity of financial assets that finance durable purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand," NBER Working Papers 28066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28066
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28066.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boris Chafwehe, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Consumption Dynamics, and the Secondary Market for Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 202-243, April.
    2. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jan Willem van den End & Paul Konietschke & Anna Samarina & Irina M Stanga, 2025. "Macroeconomic Reversal Rate in a Low Interest Rate Environment," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(3), pages 1-68, July.
    4. Stéphane Dupraz, 2023. "The Dynamic IS Curve when there is both Investment and Savings," Working papers 905, Banque de France.
    5. Evren Damar & Ian Lange & Caitlin McKennie & Mirko Moro, 2024. "Banking deregulation and consumption of home durables," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Woo, Jinhee, 2023. "The power of forward guidance: The role of social transfer," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Johannes Wieland, 2024. "Comment on "Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations: Insights from TANK Models"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, pages 358-365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.