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Do Market Segmentation and Preferred Habitat Theories Hold in Japan? : Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of Bond Purchases

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  • Nao Sudo

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Masaki Tanaka

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

While major central banks confronting the global financial crisis conducted government bond purchases on an unprecedented scale, macroeconomists began re-examining carefully the once-accepted wisdom that long-term government bond purchases by the central bank reduce long-term yields. This paper follows this shift in economic thought and examines if the wisdom holds in Japan by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features imperfect substitutability of bonds with different maturities, due to market segmentation and preferred habitats, using Japan's data from the 1980s to 2017. We focus specifically on the transmission mechanism, to determine which matters most: the size of the bond purchases at each period (flow effects), or the total amount of bonds taken away from the private sectors (stock effects). We find that, (i) Japan's data accords well with market segmentation and preferred habitat theories, which implies that government bond purchases conducted by the Bank of Japan have compressed the term premium, exerting an expansionary effect on economic activity and prices; (ii) the effect of bond purchases has been most pronounced since Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing was introduced, compressing the term premium about 50 to 100 basis points as of the end of 2017; and (iii) the compression of the term premium has been mainly driven by stock effects, which underscores the importance of the amount outstanding of the Bank's government bond holdings in determining the term premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Nao Sudo & Masaki Tanaka, 2018. "Do Market Segmentation and Preferred Habitat Theories Hold in Japan? : Quantifying Stock and Flow Effects of Bond Purchases," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-16, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp18e16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Term Premium; DSGE Model;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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